India is facing the impacts of climate change, says Hem Dholakia

Hem Dholakia, Research Associate, Council on Energy, Environment and Water, tells Business Today's Sarika Malhotra that India needs over $1 trillion till 2030 to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change.

BT: What are the big gaps in India's financial, technological and knowledge preparedness with respect to climate change?

Hem Dholakia: In terms of finance, India has committed $92 billion (4.9 per cent of its GDP) in 2013/14 to enhance adaptive capacity. This spending may reach $360 billion by 2030. Despite these investments, certain risks may not be covered and the adaptation gap may go up to $1 trillion in 2030. The loss and damage due to extreme events is estimated at $5 billion to $6 billion per annum. India has committed funds of $55 million for a National Adaptation Fund. This amount is three times that of the international funds that have been committed ($20 million) as per the Climate Funds Update database. Knowledge gaps are at three levels - for India a detailed understanding of climate impacts at the local level across all sectors is lacking. Some sectors, such as agriculture and water, have been better studied as compared to infrastructure, health and other local ecosystems. The second knowledge gap relates to evidence on effectiveness of adaptation measures. There are few long-term studies that demonstrate which adaptation measures work, in what context and how much of climate impacts they are able to mitigate. Finally, there are gaps in knowledge transfer to local stakeholders to empower them to deal with climate change impacts. Each of these gaps requires to be explored in greater detail and managed. Technology gaps are linked to either the absence of technologies that are suitable to climate adaptation. These innovative technologies require new partnerships to be put in place. Other technology gaps are related to implementation - where technologies cannot be implemented due to lack of finance or intellectual property rights.

BT: Why will India have to spend $1 trillion for climate adaptation?    
      
Hem Dholakia: India is already facing the impacts of climate change. Whatever action on global greenhouse gas mitigation is taken at Paris, India will have to rely on enhanced adaptation to keep the risks associated with climate change within acceptable limits. This is so, because, over the next 30 years (2045), the increase in mean air temperature for the country is estimated to increase by one degree to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The global goal is to arrest the rise of temperature to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. The CEEW, IIM Ahmedabad and IIT Gandhinagar study finds that 450 districts (in India) are already showing trends that temperatures will rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius (which will affect around 800 million people). As nights become hotter and rainfall more erratic, there are high risks of crop failure. Further, there is an increased risk of droughts across India in the short-term. This will put immense stress on food, water and health systems, which will impact livelihoods. Extreme events of high rainfall (Uttarakhand and now in Chennai) as well as heat waves (Telengana and Andhra Pradesh) may become more frequent.

BT: What will be the key for India to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change?

Hem Dholakia: India has already put in place the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). Of the eight missions outlined in the NAPCC, five missions are directly related to adaptation. Furthermore, the government is spending `740 billion through 21 central programmes on development linked to climate change adaptation. At the state level, the State Action Plans on Climate Change are being developed. First we need high quality information on climate impacts at state, region, district and community levels across sectors - agriculture, health, water, infrastructure and coasts, etc. This information can be used to develop early warning systems. Second, there is the need to bolster capacity in terms of knowledge, finance, human resources, monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions. This can be done by mapping the adaptation gap at regular intervals and developing policies to address it.

BT: How do you compare India with other big global emitters?

Hem Dholakia: On a per capita basis, India's GHG emissions are well below the global average. For instance, in absolute terms, China's GHG emissions are four times those of India. However, the adaptation needs of other big emitters may not be as high as those of India. For instance, the Global Risk Index (2013) showed that India was the third most vulnerable country to extreme events in the world. Therefore, India requires putting enhanced adaptation actions in place.