An exclusive conversation with Sonal Varma, Managing Director and Chief Economist (India and Asia ex-Japan), Nomura on why the global consultant believes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could resort to repo rate cuts in its October monetary policy review. While the consensus among analysts is that rate cuts will happen only from December after food inflation cools, Nomura in its recent report, said that RBI could make a surprise rate cut in October and trim repo rates by up to 100 basis points to 5.50 per cent by mid FY25. RBI had last tweaked repo rates in February 2023 increasing the benchmark rate to 6.50 per cent. The rates have been held since then with the central bank intent on keeping retail inflation at 4 per cent with a ‘tolerance band’ of 200 basis points on either side. In a chat with Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi, the Nomura MD and Chief Economist says while food price inflation is cooling and core inflation remains benign, growth is going to soften going ahead. According to Nomura, India's GDP growth is expected to moderate to 6.7 per cent this financial year from 8.2 per cent last year, with downside risks rising in 2025-26. It is in this backdrop that Sonal Varma believes an inflection in India's monetary policy cycle is around the corner. She expects the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 bps each in October, December, February 2025 and April 2025.