The potential third wave of COVID-19 pandemic will be "ripple" in the absence of any significantly faster-spreading mutant variant of the coronavirus, as per the projections of IIT-Kanpur's 'Sutra' model.
However, if there is a faster-spreading mutant, the magnitude of the third wave of the pandemic would be comparable to that of the first one, as per the model.
Maninder Agarwal, Professor at IIT Kanpur and a member of the team of scientists behind the 'Sutra' analysis, said the group has created three scenarios for the trajectory of the potential third wave of the pandemic.
"The third wave will be a ripple. If there is no significantly faster-spreading mutant, the third wave will be a ripple, and if there is such a mutant, the third wave will be comparable to the first one," news agency ANI quoted Agarwal as saying.
"The optimistic one (scenario) - where we assume that life goes back to normal by August, and there is no new mutant. Second the intermediate one - where we assume that vaccination is 20 per cent less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions. Third pessimistic one - This has an assumption different from the intermediate one: a new 25 per cent more infectious mutant spreads in August," Agarwal added.
However, if there is a variant of the virus that bypasses immunity then all the scenarios would become invalid, according to the 'Sutra' model.
The scientists behind the 'Sutra Model' were members of an expert panel set up by the Department of Science and Technology under the Centre.
Three members of this government panel came up with the 'Sutra Model' in 2020. They have since made mathematical projections on the trajectory of the COVID-19 cases. The model is called 'Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach' (Sutra) to study the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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