As Delhi gears up for the Assembly elections on February 5, pollster JVC Sreeram has predicted a razor-thin margin between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The ruling AAP is projected to win 36 seats and the BJP close behind with 34. The Congress, despite a strong push, appears unlikely to cross the finish line in key constituencies, according to Sreeram.
His seat projections indicate AAP securing 47.2% of the vote share, BJP at 45.3%, Congress at 5.5%, and others accounting for 2%. "Congress is fighting hard in few seats but unable to cross the line," he said in a tweet. "Next 21 days would decide which way things would go."
In the 2020 Delhi assembly elections, the AAP registered a resounding victory, securing 62 out of the 70 seats. The saffron party managed to win only 8 seats, failing to significantly dent AAP's popularity. The Congress, once a formidable force in Delhi politics, suffered a complete rout, failing to win any seats for the second consecutive assembly election.
The BJP, out of power in Delhi since 1998, is making significant efforts to unseat Arvind Kejriwal's AAP, which has been in office since 2015. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to address two to three rallies in the city, while Home Minister Amit Shah is slated to hold seven rallies, one in each of Delhi's Lok Sabha constituencies.
Meanwhile, the Congress, which ruled Delhi for 15 years under Sheila Dikshit's leadership, is attempting to make a comeback. However, its campaign faces internal challenges as allies from the INDIA bloc, including the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC), have thrown their support behind the AAP. SP Chief Akhilesh Yadav cited AAP’s stronger presence in Delhi as the reason for the move, emphasising the need to collectively challenge the BJP.
Adding another layer of complexity to the contest, fringe players like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) are eyeing vote shares that could disrupt the plans of the main contenders. The BSP is contesting all 70 seats, while AIMIM is focusing on about a dozen Muslim-majority constituencies. Both parties have lined up rallies led by their respective leaders, Mayawati and Asaduddin Owaisi.
The Delhi Assembly election results will be declared on February 8.