The coastal belt of Maharashtra, particularly the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), is poised to become a decisive battleground in the upcoming assembly elections, setting the stage for a contest between the Mahayuti alliance and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). With two rival factions of the Shiv Sena at the forefront, the urbanised and industrialised coastal region, including Mumbai, is expected to play a critical role in shaping the outcome.
The Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and other coastal districts, comprising 75 assembly constituencies and 12 Lok Sabha seats, will be central to the power struggle. The Konkan belt, which extends from Sindhudurg to Mumbai, covers key districts such as Palghar, Thane, Raigad, and Ratnagiri.
In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the Mahayuti alliance—comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction—secured seven out of the 12 seats in the region. The BJP won in Palghar, Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, and Mumbai North, while the Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction managed to retain its hold in Raigad through Sunil Tatkare. Shiv Sena, under the leadership of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, triumphed in Thane, Kalyan, and Mumbai North West.
Former Union Minister Narayan Rane, who clinched the Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg seat, is expected to be a key player for the BJP in Konkan. Prominent battlegrounds include Shinde’s home constituency of Kopri-Pachpakhadi in Thane and the Worli seat in Mumbai, where Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Aaditya Thackeray is seeking re-election.
The assembly elections are shaping up as a fierce contest between the two Shiv Sena factions—one led by Shinde within the Mahayuti alliance and the other by Uddhav Thackeray under the MVA. The Congress, which has lost significant ground in Mumbai over the years, now faces the challenge of rebuilding its presence. Its decline in the city has largely benefited the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena.
Out of the 75 assembly constituencies in the region, six are in the tribal-dominated Palghar district, 18 in Thane (including six segments within Thane city), and 36 in Mumbai. Raigad, Ratnagiri, and Sindhudurg together account for 15 seats.
Beyond the Coast: Other Crucial Regions in Play
While the coastal belt holds strategic importance, other regions across Maharashtra will also have a significant impact on the electoral outcome. Vidarbha, with 62 assembly seats, continues to be a political hotspot, home to prominent leaders like Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, Congress opposition leader Vijay Wadettiwar, state Congress president Nana Patole, and BJP’s state chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule. The Congress hopes to regain ground in the region, focusing on issues like irrigation and agrarian distress.
In Marathwada, known for being the center of the Maratha quota agitation, the 46 assembly seats could give the Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) an edge over the ruling BJP-led coalition. The region will also test the strength of the MVA’s campaign on issues concerning farmers and unemployment.
North Maharashtra, often referred to as the "onion belt" due to its agricultural economy, offers 47 assembly seats. Political heavyweights from various parties dominate the landscape here, including BJP’s Girish Mahajan, NCP’s Chhagan Bhujbal, and Shiv Sena’s Gulabrao Patil. The Congress will aim to consolidate its presence in this region, especially after its victory in the Dhule and Nandurbar Lok Sabha seats.
Western Maharashtra, with 58 assembly constituencies, is expected to witness high-stakes political drama, particularly in the Baramati constituency. The rivalry between Sharad Pawar and his estranged nephew, Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, could come to a head here. Speculation is rife about a potential contest between Ajit Pawar and his nephew Yugendra Pawar in the Baramati assembly seat if the latter is fielded by Ajit’s faction of the NCP.
BJP Under Pressure to Reclaim Dominance
Although the BJP has enjoyed a dominant position in Maharashtra politics over the past decade, it faces significant pressure in this election cycle. In the 2014 assembly elections, the party secured 122 seats but saw its tally drop to 105 in the 2019 elections, even in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena. The BJP’s performance in the recent Lok Sabha polls, where its seat count fell from 23 to nine, has added to the urgency for the party to reverse its fortunes.
The recent electoral victory in Haryana has boosted morale within the BJP, but the party is aware that it will need a strong showing across all regions in Maharashtra to regain momentum. Congress, buoyed by its improved performance in the Lok Sabha polls, is looking to solidify its position within the MVA alliance and increase its seat tally.
With critical constituencies spread across the coast and the hinterland, the stage is set for a fierce electoral battle.
(With inputs from agencies)