The exit poll numbers predicted a victory for BJP-led NDA, which is set to bag 29-23 seats out of 40 seats, while INDIA bloc is projected to secure 7-10 seats, according to the India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll 2024.
According to the projections BJP is set to get 13-15 seats, JDU 9-11 seats, RJD 6-7 seats and Congress is likely to get 1-2 seats.
Political upheaval in Bihar notwithstanding with Nitish Kumar's frequent volte-faces, the NDA, which comprises the BJP, JD(U) and other regional parties, is projected to win 29-33 of 40 seats in the state. The INDIA bloc, where the RJD and Congress are the key players, is likely to bag between 7 to 10 seats.
| Agencies | NDA | INDIA Bloc | Others |
| India Today-Axis My India | 29-33 | 7-10 | 0-2 |
| Today's Chanakya | 36 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| C Voter | 34-38 | 3-5 | 0 |
| Times Now | 31 | 8 | 1 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 32-37 | 7-3 | 0 |
| Polstrat | 28 | 9 | 3 |
| Matrize | 37 | 3 | 0 |
| PMARQ | 37 | 3 | 0 |
In the 2019 general elections, BJP secured 17 seats while JDU, its ally, won 16 seats taking the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) tally to 39 out of 40 seats.
Congress managed to win a single seat, while RJD failed to secure any. The landslide victory bolstered BJP’s confidence, which is aiming for a clean sweep in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Bihar just voted in the seventh and final phase of the Lok Sabha polls on June 1. This last phase saw voting across eight Lok Sabha seats, including Nalanda, Patna Sahib, Pataliputra, Arrah, Buxar, Sasaram, Karakat and Jahanabad.
Historically, Patna Sahib has been a stronghold for BJP since its inception after the 2008 delimitation. The party fielded former Union Minister and incumbent MP Ravi Shankar Prasad, who emerged victorious over actor-turned-politician Shatrughan Sinha in the previous general election.
The INDI Alliance and political analysts argue that Nitish Kumar’s frequent shifts in allegiance may harm JDU’s prospects and may impact the NDA as well. Kumar’s history of switching sides between BJP and opposition could alienate voters seeking stable leadership, feel analysts.
Rising inflation, unemployment, and corruption are the top concerns for voters of the state. BJP claims it has addressed these issues.
The INDIA bloc is also leveraging the discontent among the youth regarding the Agniveer Scheme, the short-term military service which lacks long-term benefits like pensions and medical facilities. RJD promised to revert to the old recruitment system if elected.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election is a battle for relevance for Congress, while for RJD, it is a critical opportunity to stage a comeback and set the stage right for the 2025 state assembly elections.
The exit poll serves as a preliminary assessment of the outcomes that can be anticipated. On June 4, the Election Commission will announce the official results following the tallying of all the ballots. The outcome will be announced by the evening of June 4.