'China unlikely to intervene': Former top general as India-Pakistan tensions rise after Pahalgam
The officer voiced concern over rising vulnerabilities along the Bangladesh border following the political change in Dhaka.
- Apr 27, 2025,
- Updated Apr 27, 2025 2:38 PM IST
China is unlikely to directly involve itself in any instability between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack, given the shifting geopolitical environment and global economic stakes, according to former Eastern Command chief Lt Gen (retd) Rana Pratap Kalita.
Kalita pointed to recent improvements in India-China ties after the Galwan clashes, stressing that "post the Galwan 2020 incident, after a lot of consultations and deliberations between the two countries, the stand-off at the last of the friction points has been resolved." He noted that a "process of normalisation" was underway, with discussions progressing on restarting direct flights and resuming the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.
Against this backdrop, Kalita argued that China would tread cautiously. "Seeing these complexities and geopolitical developments as well, whether there will be any direct manifestation of the Chinese towards the instability caused by the Pahalgam incident is difficult to predict at the moment. But as of now, I don’t see them getting directly involved," he said while speaking to news agency PTI.
China's economic priorities also weigh heavily on its calculations, Kalita noted, especially as both India and China face high US-imposed tariffs. "With India and China being manufacturing countries as well as major consumption markets, the impact of change in tariffs is bound to be felt more," he said.
At the same time, Kalita warned against underestimating China's close strategic interests with Pakistan. "The vulnerability of the sea link with Pakistan is known. The importance of access to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan for China is also a known fact," he said.
Turning to India's eastern flank, Kalita voiced concern over rising vulnerabilities along the Bangladesh border following the political change in Dhaka. "After the Sheikh Hasina government was deposed, we have seen that there is a rising anti-India feeling in Bangladesh, which is being fueled by religious fundamentalists," he said.
He flagged the release of leaders of groups like Ansarul Bangla under the new caretaker government, saying it has "collectively added to the rise of the anti-India feeling."
Further, he pointed to recent meetings between senior Pakistani military officers, "including the DG of the ISI who met various people there," as adding to India’s strategic concerns.
Kalita underlined the risk of migration-driven demographic shifts in Assam and Tripura, warning about efforts to "spread Islamic fundamentalism within the northeast," where "the demographic pattern remains sensitive and finely balanced."
He also flagged the strategic sensitivity of the Siliguri corridor — India's narrow lifeline to its northeast — and cautioned about the potential revival of terrorist camps in Bangladesh, where outfits like ULFA once had bases.
Despite these concerns, Kalita struck a note of confidence about India's readiness. "Periodic threat perception assessments are carried out on a regular basis and response mechanism is also prepared accordingly. I am confident about the preparation in the Eastern section to tackle any situation."
(With inputs from PTI)
China is unlikely to directly involve itself in any instability between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack, given the shifting geopolitical environment and global economic stakes, according to former Eastern Command chief Lt Gen (retd) Rana Pratap Kalita.
Kalita pointed to recent improvements in India-China ties after the Galwan clashes, stressing that "post the Galwan 2020 incident, after a lot of consultations and deliberations between the two countries, the stand-off at the last of the friction points has been resolved." He noted that a "process of normalisation" was underway, with discussions progressing on restarting direct flights and resuming the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.
Against this backdrop, Kalita argued that China would tread cautiously. "Seeing these complexities and geopolitical developments as well, whether there will be any direct manifestation of the Chinese towards the instability caused by the Pahalgam incident is difficult to predict at the moment. But as of now, I don’t see them getting directly involved," he said while speaking to news agency PTI.
China's economic priorities also weigh heavily on its calculations, Kalita noted, especially as both India and China face high US-imposed tariffs. "With India and China being manufacturing countries as well as major consumption markets, the impact of change in tariffs is bound to be felt more," he said.
At the same time, Kalita warned against underestimating China's close strategic interests with Pakistan. "The vulnerability of the sea link with Pakistan is known. The importance of access to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan for China is also a known fact," he said.
Turning to India's eastern flank, Kalita voiced concern over rising vulnerabilities along the Bangladesh border following the political change in Dhaka. "After the Sheikh Hasina government was deposed, we have seen that there is a rising anti-India feeling in Bangladesh, which is being fueled by religious fundamentalists," he said.
He flagged the release of leaders of groups like Ansarul Bangla under the new caretaker government, saying it has "collectively added to the rise of the anti-India feeling."
Further, he pointed to recent meetings between senior Pakistani military officers, "including the DG of the ISI who met various people there," as adding to India’s strategic concerns.
Kalita underlined the risk of migration-driven demographic shifts in Assam and Tripura, warning about efforts to "spread Islamic fundamentalism within the northeast," where "the demographic pattern remains sensitive and finely balanced."
He also flagged the strategic sensitivity of the Siliguri corridor — India's narrow lifeline to its northeast — and cautioned about the potential revival of terrorist camps in Bangladesh, where outfits like ULFA once had bases.
Despite these concerns, Kalita struck a note of confidence about India's readiness. "Periodic threat perception assessments are carried out on a regular basis and response mechanism is also prepared accordingly. I am confident about the preparation in the Eastern section to tackle any situation."
(With inputs from PTI)