The Haryana Dangal is quite a challenging one and the Congress party is looking to Olympian wrestler Vinesh Phogat to win over the Jat community in the state. The grand old party has fielded the former wrestler, who was disqualified from the Paris Olympics 2024, from the Julana assembly constituency in the state.
Phogat, for whom an Olympics gold or silver was within the striking distance, was disqualified because she was overweight by 100 grams in the 50 kg weight category in which she was competing. Vinesh's maiden political battle from Julana is a high-stakes one, akin to her bouts at the Olympics so far.
Despite Vinesh's popularity among the Jats as well as farmers, women and the youth, the battle of Julana is far from a cakewalk. Julana is situated in Haryana's Jat-dominated Bangar region and has been a stronghold of regional parties such as the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Jannayak Janta Party (JJP).
The INLD and the JJP have held the seat for the past 15 years. INLD's Parminder Singh won from the assembly seat in 2009 and 2014 whereas JJP's Amarjeet Dhanda claimed it in 2019. Notably, the Congress lost the seat to the INLD 15 years ago as Congress' Sher Singh held the seat from 2000-2009.
Despite the Congress not being able to win Julana since 2009, Vinesh has certain factors that give her an edge in the seat. Here, she will be faced with BJP's Captain Yogesh Bairagi. Captain Bairagi is currently the state vice president of the BJP's youth wing and the Co-Convenor of the party's Haryana sports cell.
The former wrestler's entry into the Congress after a shock disqualification from the Paris Olympics will boost the party's chances at bagging Julana because of her popularity among the Jat populace, farmers, women and the youth.
Her popularity among the Jats could help as the community accounts for 22-27 per cent of Haryana's population. A total of 37 seats in Haryana have more than 20 per cent Jat population. A total of 30 such seats are in the Rohtak and Hisar administrative divisions.
Four of these are in the GT Road belt whereas three are in Braj. These seats account for around 40 per cent of the Assembly strength. The Congress could benefit immensely if it manages to secure the Jat community's support in the state elections.
The BJP has never got high support from the community in state polls, barring the aftermath of the Balakot airstrikes in 2019. Despite never getting support from the Jat community, the BJP has benefitted immensely from the Jat vote being divided between the Congress and Chautalas, the INLD and the JJP.
In the last 5 years, the BJP has faced intense heat from Jats on account of protests by farmers and wrestlers and anti-Agniveer demonstrations and sidelining the Jat community for the CM position.
In 2024, the BJP faced a massive setback in the Jat belt of Haryana. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, 64 per cent Jats backed the Congress-AAP alliance, 27 per cent were with the BJP whereas only 9 per cent backed others including the INLD and the JJP.
Not only Jat vote consolidation, Vinesh is seen as a symbol of grit and determination for women in a highly male-dominated society. Her role in the wrestlers' protest last year is likely to work for female voters in Haryana.
Vinesh also grabbed headlines last year when she along with fellow wrestlers Bajrang Punia and Sakshi Malik protested in Delhi, seeking action against the then Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) chief Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh for alleged sexual harassment of athletes.