After trailing in initial rounds, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has suddenly raced ahead of the Congress and is leading on 45-plus seats. The Congress, which had crossed the majority mark earlier, is now leading on just 36 seats. The turnaround is historic as even if the BJP loses, the Congress may not expect the kind of mandate it hoped for. The grand old party is expecting anything above 50 seats.
In the Jat region, which has 17 seats, the BJP is leading on 11 seats - a major setback for the Congress. The grand old party was expecting a sweep in the Jatland. In the Kurukshetra region, the Congress is ahead of the BJP. The Congress is leading on 14 seats, while the BJP is ahead on 11.
In the Ahirwal region, the Congress is leading on 8 seats, while BJP is ahead on 19.
In the 2019 assembly polls, the BJP won 40 seats with 33 per cent vote share.
With growing discontent among Jats towards the BJP in Haryana, the party has strategically relied on the Ahirwal belt in the southern part of the state to secure power in the 2014 and 2019 elections. This region, which includes Gurgaon, Rewari, and Mahendergarh, has remained a stronghold for the BJP since 2014. Early trends in the current elections indicate the BJP is leading in most seats within the Ahirwal belt, though the Congress is providing a stiff challenge.
In the Lok Sabha elections held four months ago, the BJP dominated 10 out of 11 Assembly segments across Gurugram, Rohtak, and Bhiwani-Mahendergarh. The Ahirwal belt, covering four Lok Sabha constituencies—Gurgaon, Rewari, Faridabad, and Bhiwani-Mahendergarh—accounts for 28 of the total 90 Assembly seats in the state. More than 60% of the voters in this region reside in urban areas.
In 2014, the BJP secured 15 seats in the Ahirwal belt. In the 2019 elections, despite its overall seat tally in Haryana dropping from 47 to 40, the BJP managed to win 16 seats in the region.