Political analyst Prashant Kishor, who predicted that the BJP will repeat its 2019 Lok Sabha performance but not exceed 370 seats, sided with Yogendra Yadav’s forecast that showed BJP coming back to power for the third time.
Despite having a difference on the number of seats for the BJP, Yadav’s prediction suggested that the saffron side with the help of its allies will manage to form a government for a third term.
Sharing Yadav’s “final assessment” in a post on X (formally Twitter), Kishor wrote, “@_YogendraYadav ji, a trusted face among those who understand elections and socio-political issues in the country, has shared his “final assessment” of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
According to Yogendra ji, in these elections, BJP may get 240-260 seats and NDA allies may get 35-45 seats. Meaning BJP/NDA may get 275-305 seats.
272 seats are required to form a government in the country and BJP/NDA has 303/323 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha. (Shiv Sena won 18 seats as part of NDA but is no longer with them).”
Kishor had predicted that it would be impossible for BJP to get 370 seats on its own, and it is not likely to exceed the target of 400 seats as several of its leaders have been claiming. However, he had said that the party would not drop below the 270-mark.
A party needs to win 272 seats of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha to form a government.
On the other hand, Yadav predicted that BJP alone won’t cross more than 260 seats and will find it “impossible” to surpass the 300-mark. His poll forecast also suggested that the party may even fall below the 275 or even the 250-seat mark. Yadav also echoed Kishor’s prediction that BJP’s ‘400 paar’ claim would not be possible.
Yadav predicted that the BJP would win 240 to 260 seats, and its NDA partners would contribute 35 to 45 more, which would make the coalition get 275 to 305 seats.
In contrast, Yadav predicted that Congress would win 85 to 100 seats, and its INDIA bloc members would get another 120 to 135, making the Opposition-led alliance bag 205 to 235 seats.
“Now you can judge for yourself whose government is being formed. You will know on 4 June who is talking about whom,” Kisor added.
In an exclusive interview with India Today TV on Tuesday (May 21), Prashant Kishor predicted the BJP's seat shares, adding there was no widespread anger among the people against PM Modi.
Yadav claimed there might be a possibility of the INDIA bloc overtaking the NDA if in the forthcoming days, some major political upheavals occur in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar - two of the strongholds for NDA.
He also predicted gains for BJP in the southern stretch from Kerala to Odisha in both votes and seats, however, the gains would not be “as big as the BJP is expecting”.
According to Yadav’s predictions, in South India (barring Karnataka), BJP’s seat share will see a gain of 13 seats and its allies will contribute 14 more. He predicted that despite seeing a seat surge of 13 seats in most South Indian regions and Odisha, BJP would see as many losses in Karnataka. He predicted that of the 25 seats in Karnataka that the party has it won’t win more than 12 seats.
According to Yadav, BJP would see “neither a gain nor a big loss” in Bengal. He further predicted that in Northeast where the BJP performed well, especially in Assam, in the previous Lok Sabha elections, the party’s seat gain wouldn’t see a jump and would remain where it is now.
Yadav said that if in the final two phases of the Lok Sabha elections 2024, the wave changes in Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, it might also be possible that the NDA drops below the 275-mark.