Political strategist Prashant Kishor believes that Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's coming out of jail and campaigning in the Lok Sabha elections will hurt the Congress, not the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is part of the INDIA bloc, which comprises Congress. However, the Congress and AAP are taking on each other in Punjab. Both parties are contesting together in Delhi, which has 7 Lok Sabha seats.
"The AAP is not contesting pan-India elections. They are fighting 22 seats - 14 in Punjab, 7 seats in Delhi, and 1 in Gujarat. Whatever has to change now will happen only in these 22 seats. Of these 22, 14 are in Punjab where a direct contest is between the AAP and Congress. If AAP benefits in Punjab, it will be Congress' loss," the political strategist said in an interview with Telangana-based RTV.
Kishor said that of the 22 seats where the AAP is contesting, its direct fight is with Congress on 13 seats in Punjab. In some seats of Punjab, he said, the BJP is also a player. In 2019, the BJP won two seats in Punjab - Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur. This time, the BJP is contesting all 13 seats in the state.
The strategist admitted that Kejriwal's coming out of jail will boost the morale of party workers and leaders but said that he won't be able to impact voters' sentiments beyond Delhi and Punjab. "If a leader of a party comes out, it will boost the morale of party workers and leaders...you are sitting in Telangana, suppose if Kejriwal comes here in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha to campaign...do you think that will change voting behaviour or sentiments? I don't think so. That change can reflect in Delhi and Punjab."
Voting for 7 Lok Sabha seats in Delhi will be held on May 25, while 13 seats in Punjab will go to polls on June 1. Gujarat, where the AAP is contesting on 2 seats, went to polls in the third phase on May 7 - three days before Kejriwal was released from jail.
Kishor, who has spearheaded election campaigns for many regional stalwarts like Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh, predicted the return of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the third term. He said the BJP is gaining seats in East and South.
According to him, the saffron party's seats will increase in West Bengal, Odisha, and Telangana. The poll strategist also said that he does not see any major decline in the BJP's seats in North and West. He said the BJP is likely to maintain its current tally of about 300 in the Lok Sabha.
Pollster Pradeep Gupta has also said that he does not see any major upset in this election and the voting pattern in 2024 is somewhat similar to 2019. He, however, did not give any number due to restrictions by the Election Commission.
The counting of votes will take place on June 4.