Political strategist Prashant Kishor has reiterated that the BJP-led NDA has a massive advantage in the Lok Sabha elections and that nothing has changed in the last 5-6 months. He said that it is difficult to predict the numbers as to which party or alliance will win how many seats. "Sometimes, we are forced to say numbers...but this is just guesswork. Nobody knows which party will win how many seats," he said in an interview with Telangana-based RTV.
Kishor, however, said that he believes the BJP-led NDA has a massive advantage in this election, and in the last 5-6 months, nothing has changed. "What I had said before, I will repeat. In this election, the BJP-led NDA has a massive advantage. And in the last 2-4-6 months, I have not seen anything that I will change my that assessment."
The noted strategist, who has spearheaded election campaigns of national and regional parties in the past, said that it was obvious that when two sides of different ideologies are contesting then there will be some chatter. "But fundamentally, I don't see anything on the ground to suggest any big surprising upset."
He also underlined that the opposition is relevant and will remain so as "in a country where more than 60 crore people don't earn more than Rs 100, the opposition cannot be weak against the government." "Never make that mistake, the opposition parties can be weak, their formation (alliance) can be weak, but the opposition against the government cannot be weak," Kishor said, adding that no party gets 50 per cent votes and that the BJP got nearly 40 per cent votes in 2019.
The ace political strategist said the BJP cannot get 400 seats, and this slogan was given by the top leadership to change the narrative. Speaking on challenges to the BJP, he said rural distress is an important issue and there is no economic improvement in the lives of 50 per cent of people at the bottom. "Despite this, if the BJP is winning, the reason is that the opposition is not that effective and credible."
Kishor also spoke on low voter turnout in the first few phases, that many believed perturbed the BJP. He said there is no scientific basis that can show that low voter turnout benefits which side, incumbent or challengers. Sometimes, he said, low voter turnout has gone in favour of the incumbent and sometimes it benefitted the challengers.
When asked about the return of the BJP, the strategist said that he did not believe that the NDA's numbers were going to decline. He said if the BJP were to lose the elections, it had to lose at least 100 seats in the North and South. "The BJP is not losing 100 seats in North and West...those saying the BJP is losing should tell where the BJP is losing these many seats," he said, adding that the saffron party is likely to gain its vote shares and seats in Assam, West Bengal, Odisha, and Telangana.
Kishor also said that the BJP is likely to retain its current number, which is 303 in Lok Sabha. He said the INDIA alliance people saying the Congress can win up to 10 seats in Rajasthan, a few seats in Haryana, the MVA can win 10-15 seats in Maharashtra, and half seats in Karnataka. "Even if you take all these as true, the loss to the BJP will be 30-35 seats. The BJP's seats will increase in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Bengal. "How are they (BJP) losing then?" he asked.
The strategist said not only the Congress but also Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD in Bihar, and the NCP-Congress-Sena alliance in Maharashtra have to improve their strike rate to beat the BJP in Delhi.