Political strategist Prashant Kishor believes that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will add 20-25 seats from the East and South - a region where the saffron party has struggled to expand. He also said that the saffron party won't go down below 270, and most likely will win more than 300 seats.
The strategist said the BJP's tally will increase in West Bengal, Telangana, and Odisha. In 2019, the BJP won 18 of 42 in Bengal, 4 of 17 in Telangana, and 8 of 21 in Odisha. This time, it wants to increase its numbers in these states and Tamil Nadu.
Kishor said that BJP's seats and vote shares will increase in Bihar, Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. He also said that he does not see any risk for the BJP and that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will return for another term.
Explaining the math behind his belief that the NDA will return, he said the Northern and Western regions, which have about 325 seats, are the stronghold of the BJP. Here, he said, the BJP and its partners have won nearly 90 per cent of seats. The eastern and southern regions - which include Bihar, Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala - have about 225 seats.
This is the region, Kishor said, where the BJP's performance has not been that good in the last ten years. In this region, the BJP today has less than 50 seats. "If the BJP were to lose, one has to see whether it is losing seats in North and West. My assessment is that there is no material damage to the BJP in these two regions."
The ace strategist said that the BJP's seat and vote shares are going to increase in the East and South. He predicted that the BJP would get 15-20 seats more than what it currently has in these regions. "So, status quo or status quo with a positive bias towards the incumbent...BJP won't go down below 270...most likely, they will increase their number - above 303," he said while speaking to India Today's News Director Rahul Kanwal.
Earlier this week, Kishor predicted that the BJP will improve its previous tally of 303 seats in 2019. He predicted that the BJP, which bagged 4 seats in Telangana, may win 6-9 seats in this southern state. The saffron party has also formed an alliance in Andhra Pradesh, which has 25 Lok Sabha seats. In Andhra, the BJP has stitched an alliance with N Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena Party. The BJP is contesting on 6 seats, while TDP 17, and Jana Sena 2. Any win for these parties will improve the NDA's tally. The NDA currently does not have any seats from Andhra Pradesh.
Kishor has predicted a massive defeat for Jagan Mohan Reddy in the assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh.