Maharashtra's ruling alliance, Mahayuti, appears set to return to power in the upcoming Assembly elections scheduled for November 20, according to an opinion poll conducted by survey agency Matrize. The survey, which gathered responses from over 109,000 participants between October 10 and November 9, forecasts a significant lead for the incumbent coalition.
The Matrize poll predicts that the Mahayuti could secure between 145 and 165 seats in the 288-member Assembly. In contrast, the opposition coalition, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is projected to win approximately 106 to 126 seats.
In terms of overall voter support, the Mahayuti is shown to have a favourable edge which is anticipated to capture about 47% of the vote share, compared to 41% for the MVA. Meanwhile, the smaller parties can collectively gather around 12% of the votes, according to the poll.
Regionally, the survey indicates strong support for the BJP, a key component of the Mahayuti, particularly in Western Maharashtra (48%), Vidarbha (48%), and Thane-Konkan (52%). Conversely, the Congress-led MVA is expected to perform well in North Maharashtra and Marathwada, with estimated vote shares of 47% and 44%, respectively.
What would MVA's loss mean?
If the predictions hold, a loss for the MVA could signal substantial challenges ahead, particularly following their success in the recent Lok Sabha elections in which they claimed 31 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra while the NDA secured only 17 seats.
Following a successful campaign in Haryana, the BJP-led Mahayuti appears to have gained momentum, reinvigorating its base and adjusting its strategy for the forthcoming elections.
Meanwhile, the MVA faces internal challenges regarding seat-sharing agreements and the selection of a chief ministerial candidate. Despite these hurdles, the coalition has expressed confidence in its ability to secure a victory.
BJP strengthens campaigns
BJP is promoting the slogan 'Ek hain toh safe hain' (Together, we are safe). This phrase, championed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, serves as a pointed critique of the Congress party, which is accused of fostering divisive politics among backward classes.
Maharashtra is set to hold its elections in a single phase on November 20. The election results along with vote counting scheduled for three days later on November 23, 2024.