Dr. Shamika Ravi, a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, has said that she is in favour of implementing a National Register of Citizens (NRC) and conducting comprehensive land surveys in Northeast to address India's pressing demographic challenges. "Yes, am in favour (of NRC). No modern plural democracy can function without these basic institutions,” she said in an interview with ANI Editor Smita Prakash.
Ravi pointed to India's slow but significant demographic changes, which are reshaping the country's socio-political landscape. "The magnitude and complexity of our problem are far more severe,” she said, noting that migration, conversion, and fertility differentials are altering the population balance in several regions. For example, she highlighted that Arunachal Pradesh was a Buddhist majority till 2001 but became a Christian majority in 2011.
"Politics of today is a reflection of what is happening on the ground. Because demographic changes are glacial they are really slow, but they're happening. So let's not even for a while delude ourselves into saying that it's the politics that is driving changes of demography and religion. No, it's the other way around."
Speaking on illegal immigrants, the economist said that a very large number of districts in Northeast have seen major change within 10 years. She said that Bangladeshis and Rohingyas are coming in wave after wave. "And you are seeing that emerge now as a major issue. It's important to realise that many of these issues if they are not resolved, they don't just go away, they fester and they will come up and manifest in various ways. So many of our institutions are coming under stress."
According to her, the magnitude of the problem is much more severe. "What we have to do is that in places like Northeast, we need basic land surveys. Because the tribal region is a black box. Who owns which land, yes it is collective but we know for sure that a collective has also been usurped by elites and are being transacted. That is not how tribal lines were meant to be."
When asked whether the country needs anti-conversion law, Ravi said she used to see this problem from an individual rights perspective but added that what is happening on the ground is very little free will is really getting exercised. She then narrated that her former driver, who was working at a Christian organisation, was asked to convert if he wanted to be confirmed.
"My driver came back after 3 years. He went out and he was working at one of these major Christian institutions here in Delhi. He came back and said, will you hire me? I said what happened? He said there were three of us there. And we were told - 'if you convert, we'll make you permanent otherwise we'll let you go'. I would be foolish to think that is a one-off. I have seen so much of it in the Northeast and in many parts of tribal areas. This is where I'm not sure it's free will. Of the three people that this institution had recruited as temporary before they made permanent - two converted, but this guy ran away. He didn't want to convert. Therefore he came back to me. That just tells you that free will is not on the ground the way we think it is."
The top economist said that there's a lot of inducement and people, under distress, will do anything to save a child . "This is where how much of it is coercive and what is free will - we have to have a very serious discussion in this country. So far we have just pretended it is all free will and therefore let it be in the way it is."
Ravi said that conversion has begun to play a very major role in some of the districts whether it's Southern Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, and Tamil Nadu. "These are very drastic changes and therefore when we think of population shares and only think of fertility we are pretending that conversion is not happening and every person who's converting is doing it under free will."
Last year, the EAC-PM released a study revealing significant shifts in India's demographics between 1950 and 2015. As per the study, the Hindu population's share declined from 84.68% to 78.06%, a decrease of 7.82%, while the Muslim population grew from 9.84% to 14.09%, marking a 43.15% rise.
As some differed with the findings on the ground that the fertility rate among Muslims was declining faster, Ravi rejected this argument, saying that as long as there is a difference in growth, the share of one will increase and the share of the other will decrease. "The fertility rates of the different religions are different. The only thing we hear about is that the fertility rate of the Muslim population is declining faster. Yes, it is declining faster, but that does not change things on the ground...the share is determined by the relative growth of the two. And as long as there is a difference in growth, regardless of the level, the share of one will increase and the share of the other will decrease."