BJP's Tamil Nadu president K Annamalai may have helped his party get a foot in the door of a state where it has historically struggled. Exit polls suggest the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could win up to seven seats in a state with India TV-CNX giving the most optimistic forecast, placing NDA's potential haul between five to seven seats, a significant gain attributed to Annamalai's efforts.
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts a more conservative two to four seats, while Jan Ki Baat gave five seats. Other polls, such as ABP News-C Voter, India News-D Dynamic, and TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat, also predicted at least one seat for the NDA.
Despite the caveat that exit polls can often miss the mark, the potential gains for the BJP are noteworthy. News Nation predicts two seats for the NDA, while Republic Bharat-Matrize forecasts just one. It's crucial to highlight that these seats are attributed to the NDA coalition rather than the BJP alone, which has secured only one seat in the last two elections.
In 2019, the BJP, in alliance with the AIADMK, was soundly defeated by the DMK-Congress alliance, which captured 38 of Tamil Nadu's 39 seats. This time, the BJP fielded candidates in 23 seats independently, following a fallout with the AIADMK over comments made by Annamalai about AIADMK icon J Jayalalithaa.
The BJP also aligned with nine regional Tamil parties, including the high-profile Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which contested 10 seats. Other NDA members in the fray included the Tamil Maanila Congress and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam of TTV Dhinakaran. Former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam contested as an independent from Ramanathapuram with BJP backing.
If these exit poll predictions hold, it will mark a significant victory for the BJP in Tamil Nadu, underscoring Annamalai's pivotal role in this electoral shift. The Prime Minister's focused campaign in the state, with nearly a dozen visits, appears to have paid dividends. This potential breakthrough in Tamil Nadu is a critical piece of the BJP's strategy to achieve its ambitious 400-seat target nationally.
Annamalai, a 39-year-old former IPS officer from the 2011 Karnataka cadre, served as SP in Chikmagalur and Udupi and as DCP in Bangalore (South). Hailing from Karur near Coimbatore, Annamalai embarked on a seven-month padayatra, ‘En Mannu, En Makkal’ (my soil, my people), endearing himself to the public. In the 2021 Assembly election, he contested from Aravakurichi but lost to DMK’s R Elango by 24,816 votes.
As BJP state chief, Annamalai launched the ‘DMK Files’ against the DMK and criticized ally AIADMK, leading to the alliance’s breakup. Despite this, the BJP fielded him in Coimbatore, an AIADMK stronghold.
Meanwhile, the Congress-led INDIA bloc, with the ruling DMK as a member, is still predicted to dominate Tamil Nadu, with forecasts ranging from 22-26 seats (India TV-CNX) to as many as 39 seats (ABP News-C Voter). The AIADMK, contesting on its own, is expected to continue facing challenges, with the best forecast of five seats from India News-D Dynamics.
The emergence of BJP as a significant player in Tamil Nadu, if confirmed by actual results, will be the biggest takeaway from the 2024 Lok Sabha election for the party, showcasing a potential shift in the state's political landscape.