India's GDP to grow 11% in FY22, contract 8% in FY21: CRISIL

India's GDP to grow 11% in FY22, contract 8% in FY21: CRISIL

Policymakers and regulators have primarily facilitated the economic revival, and India's medium-term growth now hinges on a kickstart of the investment cycle.

Advertisement
The rating agency expects GDP growth to average 6.3 per cent between fiscals 2023 and 2025.The rating agency expects GDP growth to average 6.3 per cent between fiscals 2023 and 2025.
BusinessToday.In
  • Mar 9, 2021,
  • Updated Mar 19, 2021 4:01 PM IST

Rating agency CRISIL sees India's gross domestic product (GDP) growing 11 per cent in financial year 2021-22 after an estimated 8 per cent contraction in 2020-21.

The pick-up in economy will be based on convergence of four drivers -- people learning to live with the new normal, flattening of COVID-19 affliction curve, rollout of vaccinations, and investment-focused government spending, it said.

Advertisement

Hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent nationwide lockdown to control the spread of infections, Indian economy contracted by 24.4 per cent in April-June 2020 and 7.3 per cent in July-September quarter of the year. The GDP growth returned to positive territory in October-December quarter, rising by 0.4 per cent.

The pace of growth will differ in the first and second halves of next fiscal, like in FY21. "While the first half next fiscal will benefit optically because of low-base effect, the second half would see a more broad-based pick-up in economic activity owing to a commodity price lift, large-scale vaccinations and likely stronger global growth," CRISIL said.

COVID impact worse than estimated; Q1 GDP revised to -24.4% from -23.9%

Rating agency CRISIL sees India's gross domestic product (GDP) growing 11 per cent in financial year 2021-22 after an estimated 8 per cent contraction in 2020-21.

The pick-up in economy will be based on convergence of four drivers -- people learning to live with the new normal, flattening of COVID-19 affliction curve, rollout of vaccinations, and investment-focused government spending, it said.

Advertisement

Hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent nationwide lockdown to control the spread of infections, Indian economy contracted by 24.4 per cent in April-June 2020 and 7.3 per cent in July-September quarter of the year. The GDP growth returned to positive territory in October-December quarter, rising by 0.4 per cent.

The pace of growth will differ in the first and second halves of next fiscal, like in FY21. "While the first half next fiscal will benefit optically because of low-base effect, the second half would see a more broad-based pick-up in economic activity owing to a commodity price lift, large-scale vaccinations and likely stronger global growth," CRISIL said.

COVID impact worse than estimated; Q1 GDP revised to -24.4% from -23.9%

Read more!
Advertisement