Q1 GDP data: Brace for worst quarterly economic growth since 1996
Most economists and rating agencies have predicted GDP contraction of 16 and 25 per cent in the April-June quarter; if this turns out to be true, it would be worst quarterly GDP numbers ever recorded since India started compiling GDP data on quarterly basis in 1996
- Aug 31, 2020,
- Updated Aug 31, 2020 4:40 PM IST
The government will release the GDP data for April-June quarter today. This data will confirm the extent of damage done to the Indian economy by coronavirus pandemic and subsequent lockdowns. Amid expected dismal GDP figures, the question is how bad the numbers will be. According to rating agencies and economists, the economy will shrink by 16-25 per cent in the April-June quarter.
State Bank of India has predicted 16.5 per cent contraction in GDP in the first quarter, while CARE ratings said the economy could shrink by 20.2 per cent. Similarly, Barclays said the economy would contract by 25.5 per cent, while Goldman Sachs has said the Indian economy would see its worst performance by shrinking about 45 per cent in the first quarter. ICRA said the 'lockdown' quarter will see a GDP and GVA contraction at 25 per cent each YoY. India Ratings and Research also believes the severity of COVID-19-led business disruptions will lead to a negative growth of 17.03 per cent.
The government will release the GDP data for April-June quarter today. This data will confirm the extent of damage done to the Indian economy by coronavirus pandemic and subsequent lockdowns. Amid expected dismal GDP figures, the question is how bad the numbers will be. According to rating agencies and economists, the economy will shrink by 16-25 per cent in the April-June quarter.
State Bank of India has predicted 16.5 per cent contraction in GDP in the first quarter, while CARE ratings said the economy could shrink by 20.2 per cent. Similarly, Barclays said the economy would contract by 25.5 per cent, while Goldman Sachs has said the Indian economy would see its worst performance by shrinking about 45 per cent in the first quarter. ICRA said the 'lockdown' quarter will see a GDP and GVA contraction at 25 per cent each YoY. India Ratings and Research also believes the severity of COVID-19-led business disruptions will lead to a negative growth of 17.03 per cent.