RBI MPC announcements: In the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting announcements after the Lok Sabha elections 2024, and the second one this fiscal, on Friday, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das estimated real GDP for 2024-25 to be 7.2 per cent.
He projected real GDP for 2024-25 Q1 at 7.3 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. “The risks are evenly balanced,” he said.
In his previous announcements in April, Das’ projection was slightly different with real GDP for 2024-25 Q1 at 7.1, Q2 at 6.9 per cent, Q3 at 7 per cent, and Q4 at 7 per cent. He had then projected GDP growth for FY25 at 7 per cent, instead of the latest raised projection of 7.2 per cent.
RBI’s latest projections come after the NSO placed India’s real GDP growth for 2023-24 at 8.2 per cent.
Domestic economic activity has maintained resilience, manufacturing activity continues to gain ground, the eight core industries posed healthy growth in April, manufacturing PMI continued to exhibit strength, services sector maintained buoyancy, said RBI Governor Das. Private consumption is recovering, he said, adding reviving rural demand is getting a fillip due to improved farm-sector activity. Investment activity continues to gain traction, and non-gold, non-oil imports entered positive territory.
“Looking ahead, the forecast of above-normal monsoon by IMD, is expected to boost kharif production and replenish the reservoir levels; strengthening agricultural activity is expected to boost rural consumption,” he said, underscoring strong urban consumption as well.
Healthy balance sheets of banks and business optimism augur well for investment activity, said the governor. External demand should get a fillip from improving prospects of global trade, he said.