The State Bank of India in a latest report stated that despite global upheavals and trade-supply chains being susceptible to re-globalisation, the Indian economy has been leaning against the winds. It predicted the GDP growth rate for Q3 FY25 at 6.2-6.3 per cent.
It also expects NSO to revise Q1 and Q2 estimates, but assuming there are no major revisions in the first two quarters, SBI said it expects FY25 GDP to be 6.3 per cent.
The actual GDP growth data will be released on February 28.
“Continuing the momentum, a healthy rural economy is further reinforcing stability and sustains momentum in other sectors even as rural agriculture wage growth is consistent and domestic tractor sales and rabi crop sown have picked up momentum. CAPEX is showing improvement in Q3 FY25 with majority of the states’ capex as percentage of BE being lower in FY25 on date but embracing a momentum in Q3 FY25 which augurs well for future developments,” it said.
It said that the slowdown in Q3 CY24 was not just for India. However, India continued to remain one of the fastest growing economies, despite intensifying geopolitical developments, supply chain disruption and the consequent imported inflationary pressures.
“Leading indicators show strong upward movement across all domains including consumer economy, investment demand, industry, and services – signaling robust momentum,” it said.
SBI said it tracks 36 leading indicators in consumption, demand, agriculture, industry, service and others, which has indicated a spike in Q3 FY25. The percentage of indicators showing acceleration has increased to 74 per cent in Q3 FY25 against 71 per cent in the previous quarter.