Goldman's currency head is in two minds about China. He has a good reason though

Goldman's currency head is in two minds about China. He has a good reason though

Goldman Sachs was among the many who bet their money on a post pandemic boom for the world's second-largest economy, expecting it to prop emerging markets globally towards a banner year.

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Business Today Desk
  • Dec 26, 2023,
  • Updated Dec 26, 2023 10:16 AM IST

The skittishness over China is forcing Goldman Sachs' head of global currency to do a rethink on the Wall Street bank's strategy for emerging markets. Goldman was among the many who bet their money on a post pandemic boom for the world's second-largest economy, expecting it to prop emerging markets globally towards a banner year. 

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It turned out to be one of the biggest bad calls for 2023 -- Chinese stocks fell over 15%, while many emerging markets held steady.

“You want to treat EM and EM ex-China differently,” Goldman’s Kamakshya Trivedi told Bloomberg TV in a report. “Chinese assets have been pretty uncorrelated with a lot of other EM assets for some time: that has been true on the equity side and also the fixed-income side,” he said in the interview, adding that despite an "aggressive hiking cycle by the Fed, a strong dollar and a slowing China, EM assets have performed resiliently.”

Trivedi termed the continued deceleration in China despite the valuations a dissapointment from an EM point of view. Take China out of the picture and emerging-market stocks gained 16% this year, compared with just 4.4% for the MSCI emerging-market benchmark index where Chinese stocks are included, and account for nearly 30% of the total index by weight.

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So what kept the EM kitty intact? Trivedi attributes it to policy actions. "Emerging-market central banks hiked interest rates early, proactively and aggressively to address the coming inflationary shock. The fact that they were ahead of the game compared to a lot of developed markets I think definitely helped them,” he told Bloomberg. “That macro combination is looking much better than what it has been, and that is a pretty positive thing for EM assets. We expect to see positive total returns in EM assets next year.”

The skittishness over China is forcing Goldman Sachs' head of global currency to do a rethink on the Wall Street bank's strategy for emerging markets. Goldman was among the many who bet their money on a post pandemic boom for the world's second-largest economy, expecting it to prop emerging markets globally towards a banner year. 

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It turned out to be one of the biggest bad calls for 2023 -- Chinese stocks fell over 15%, while many emerging markets held steady.

“You want to treat EM and EM ex-China differently,” Goldman’s Kamakshya Trivedi told Bloomberg TV in a report. “Chinese assets have been pretty uncorrelated with a lot of other EM assets for some time: that has been true on the equity side and also the fixed-income side,” he said in the interview, adding that despite an "aggressive hiking cycle by the Fed, a strong dollar and a slowing China, EM assets have performed resiliently.”

Trivedi termed the continued deceleration in China despite the valuations a dissapointment from an EM point of view. Take China out of the picture and emerging-market stocks gained 16% this year, compared with just 4.4% for the MSCI emerging-market benchmark index where Chinese stocks are included, and account for nearly 30% of the total index by weight.

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So what kept the EM kitty intact? Trivedi attributes it to policy actions. "Emerging-market central banks hiked interest rates early, proactively and aggressively to address the coming inflationary shock. The fact that they were ahead of the game compared to a lot of developed markets I think definitely helped them,” he told Bloomberg. “That macro combination is looking much better than what it has been, and that is a pretty positive thing for EM assets. We expect to see positive total returns in EM assets next year.”

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