As Russia invades Ukraine, concerns about the possibility of China invading Taiwan has emerged. These concerns, in parts, were fanned by what British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Saturday at a security conference in Munich.
Days before the Ukraine invasion, Johnson had said, “We do not fully know what President Putin intends, but the omens are grim. If Ukraine is endangered, the shock will echo around the world. And those echoes will be heard in east Asia, will be heard in Taiwan."
Beijing, however, dismissed any such connection. China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said, "Taiwan is not Ukraine. Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China. This is an indisputable legal and historical fact."
China views Taiwan as part of its territory but the island has governed itself since 1949.
Despite the reassuring words, Taiwan, on Thursday, the day Russia invaded Ukraine, had to warn away nine Chinese aircraft that entered its air defence zone. Taiwan’s defence ministry also said that the Russian invasion is being closely followed in Taipei.
Taiwan has often complained of such missions by the Chinese air force in the past two years. On January 23, a large number of aircraft – 39 – conducted a large-scale fly-by. Since then it has been sporadic with fewer aircraft, a report in Reuters stated. The ministry said that the latest incursion involved eight Chinese J-16 fighters and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft that flew over the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands at the South China Sea. Taiwanese fighters warned the aircraft and air defence missiles were deployed.
The Taipei government has increased its alert level.
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Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen calls Taiwan an independent state. She said at the meeting of a working group on the Ukraine crisis this week that all security and military units “must raise their surveillance and early warning of military developments around the Taiwan Strait”. "But in the face of foreign forces intending to manipulate the situation in Ukraine and affect the morale of Taiwanese society, all government units must strengthen the prevention of cognitive warfare launched by foreign forces and local collaborators," the details of the meeting provided by her office cited her as saying.
While conflicting voices do little to shed light on the future, it must be kept in mind that none of the sanctions and NATO could deter Russia from invading Ukraine. In the second round of sanctions, US President Joe Biden said that the US would "cut off more than half of Russia's high-tech imports" that will cost Russia severely in the short and long term. Russia is yet to stop its invasion.
The Asian counterpart of NATO, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue aka QUAD — that includes the US, India, Japan and Australia — was formed for security dialogues in the region. China is not part of the QUAD. Again, the question remains – can QUAD succeed in its region while NATO has been proven largely ineffective in stopping Ukraine’s invasion?
Social media is already abuzz with netizens voicing their concerns for Taiwan.
China-Taiwan relations
The history between China and Taiwan is fraught with tensions. After a brief occupation by the Dutch, Taiwan was ruled by the Chinese Qing dynasty from 1683 to 1895. Chinese migrants gradually started populating the island. In 1895, Japan won the First Sino-Japanese War, following which Taiwan was ceded to Japan. But after World War II, Japan surrendered control of the territory to China. China started ruling Taiwan with the consent of allies, including the US and the UK.
Things took a turn after China saw a civil war, where Mao Zedong's Communist army beat the then-leader Chiang Kai-shek's troops. Chiang and whatever was left of the Kuomintang (KMT) government fled to Taiwan in 1949 and continued to dominate Taiwanese politics for many years after.
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But Chiang’s son, Chiang Ching-kuo, began allowing a process of democratisation after long years of resistance from the people against an authoritarian rule and a growing democracy movement.
In the 1980s China offered a “one country, two systems” formula under which it wanted to give significant authority to Taiwan if it accepted Chinese reunification – a similar system was established in Hong Kong. But Taiwan rejected the proposal.
In 1991 Taiwan announced the war with the People's Republic of China on the mainland to be over.
Finally, in 2000, Taiwan elected its first non-KMT president, Chen Shui-bian. But it spooked China as Chen openly-back independence.
In 2005, China passed an anti-secession law, giving China the right to use "non-peaceful means" if Taiwan tried to "secede".
Chen was succeeded by Ma Ying-jeou in 2008 who sought to improve relations with China. Tsai Ing-wen was elected in 2016 and re-elected in 2020. Her party leans towards eventual official independence from China.
Meanwhile, the US has been reassuring Taiwan of its support and increasing its outreach.
(With Reuters, BBC inputs)
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