Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (Adani Ports) is scheduled to announce its results for the quarter and half year ending on September 30, 2024 today, that is on Tuesday, October 29. Brokerage firms are expecting a strong year-on-year (YoY) performance but quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) numbers may remain muted.
Analysts tracking the stock said that sequential performance may take a hit on the back of rising geopolitical concerns, while the company is ready to deliver double digit gains on a yearly comparison on the back of strong volume growth. However, Ebitda margins may take a hit of up 600 basis points (bps) on a QoQ basis.
Kotak Institutional Equities sees Adani Ports to clock in a revenue of Rs 7,311.1 crore, up 10 per cent YoY but down 3 per cent QoQ. Ebitda may come in at Rs 4,277 crore, up 10 per cent YoY but down 12 per cent sequentially, with Ebitda margins contracting 563 bps to 58.5 per cent. Net Profit ise seen at Rs 2,543.5 crore, up 16 per cent YoY but down 21 per cent QoQ.
"We model 10 per cent YoY improvement in revenues, driven by a combination of organic volume growth and boost from realization/mix effect. The impact of loss of Mundra volumes (inclement weather in August) was 2 per cent on volume. We model Ebitda margin of 59 per cent in 2QFY25 similar to 2QFY24 levels," Kotak added. It has a 'buy' rating on the stock.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects revenue to jump 10 per cent YoY to Rs 7,330 crore, driven by 10 per cent YoY growth in port volumes and 13 per cent YoY growth in the logistics business. It also sees adjusted PAT to be Rs 2,560 crore, up 15 per cent YoY, with Ebitda coming in at Rs 4,320 crore led by improvement in Ebitda margin by 60 bps YoY.
"Improvement in utilization at the existing and recently acquired ports and growth in the logistics business remain the key monitorables," Motilal which currently has a buy rating on the stock with target price of Rs 1,880.
Shares of Adani Ports were trading flat at Rs 1,352.45 on Tuesday, with its total market capitalization close to Rs 2.92 lakh crore. The stock had settled at Rs 1,353.20 in the previous trading session on Monday.
Nuvama Institutional Equities pegs Adani Ports' revenue at Rs 7,016.4 crore, up 6 per cent YoY but down 7 per cent QoQ. Ebitda is seen at Rs 4,278.9 crore, up 17 per cent YoY but down 11 per cent QoQ. Net profit is seen at Rs 2,528.8 crore, up 19 per cent YoY and marginally up sequentially by 2 per cent. "We expect consolidated revenues to grow at 6 per cent YoY, led by 8.5 per cent volume growth, partially offset by decline in Haifa Port revenues and SEZ income. Lower volume and margins at Gangavaram to impact consolidated performance. Expect India port margins at 71.3 per cent," added Nuvama.
Equirus Securities sees total volume handled at Adani Ports during Q2FY25 stands at 111 million metric ton, up 9.8 per cent YoY and 1.7 per cent QoQ. "We expect operating margins to be in the range of 59-60 per cent given the revenue mix," it said, adding global trade and performance of international ports as the key things to watch out for.
Adani Ports & SEZs' consolidated revenue is likely to improve by 5.6 per cent YoY with a consolidated Ebitda margin of 60.6 per cent, said Elara Capital. Q2 volume was up 9 per cent YoY to 111mn tonnes. Growth was lower due to hampering of operations at the Mundra Port, due to weather, resulting in loss of 2.0mn tonne volume, it said. expecting port revenue growth of 12 per cent YoY with a port EBITDA margin of 71 per cent.