Antique Stock Broking said exit poll results expecting the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance(NDA) to surpass its 2019 tally is in line with its expectations, saying the key highlight of the election, if exit poll expectations come true, may be NDA making significant inroads in eastern and southern states of India while maintaining its dominance in Hindi speaking heartland.
Antique said exit polls have a chequered history with incorrect predictions in 2004, 2009 general election as well as in the recent 2023 state assembly elections of Chhattisgarh and Karnataka. In few other instances, it noted, exit polls underestimated the NDA margin of victory in 2014 and 2019 general election and 2023 Madhya Pradesh state election.
"One possible reason has been 'non-response bias' emerging with rising women electorate, who has been voting in favour of NDA at a national level, as per our interaction with few political experts," it said.
Exit polls published by various agencies suggest that NDA party is likely to get re-elected for the third time with an even bigger mandate (362-385 seats). As per the exit poll, NDA is able to maintain its seat count in its key Hindi speaking belt and significantly gain inroads in eastern and southern states like Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Telangana, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
It said empirical analysis on 2019 voter turnout change and 2014 winning margin suggest that voter turnout drop in seats won with high winning margin has lower chance of losing the seat as compared to those in seats won with low winning margin
"Our analysis of 2024 voter turnout and 2019 winning margin also suggest that Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) seems to have an edge. We believe if BJP comes to power with absolute majority, policy and reform continuity may help in private capex revival. Our model portfolio remains aligned towards domestic cyclical themes," the brokerage said.