Premier, Waaree Energies shares: Impact of US anti-dumping duty; stock price targets
Kotak Institutional Equities maintained its 'Sell' rating on Premier Energies, with an unchanged fair value of Rs 840. The brokerage suggested 'Reduce' on Waaree Energies, with an unchanged fair value of Rs 2,280.
- Apr 23, 2025,
- Updated Apr 23, 2025 10:59 AM IST
Waaree Energies, Premier Energies: Kotak Institutional Equities in its latest note said the US antidumping duties (ADs) or countervailing duties (CVDs) on solar imports imports, ranging from 15 per cent to 3,000 per cent, would benefit Indian exporters but only in the medium term.
It noted that preliminary duties were being in place since December 2024, but it was Indonesia and Laos, rather than India, that emerged as the key beneficiaries. Domestic manufacturers have seen only limited positive impact in the initial months, it noted.
To recall, the US recently imposed high duties on solar imports from four Asian countries namely Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. These tariffs are significantly steeper than the preliminary ones implemented in late 2024 and are expected to drastically reduce solar module and cell imports from these countries. The imposition of AD/CVD will have a major impact, as these four countries accounted for nearly 80 per cent of all US solar imports in 2024.
While these duties are likely to cut exports from these four countries to the US, the ability of Indian manufacturers to capture the resulting market opportunity remains key, Kotak Institutional Equities said.
For the first two months of 2025, during which preliminary measures were in force, the US imported 3.4 GW worth of solar modules. Of this, India supplied 446 MW, translating to approximately 13 per cent of the total demand. This marks an increase from the 8 per cent share reached in 2024. That said, most of the supply vacuum was filled by Indonesia and Laos, which were the second and fourth-largest module suppliers during this period.
"Going forward, it will be critical to observe which between India, Laos and Indonesia will capture the vacuum created by the reduction in imports from SEA countries. On the solar cell front, higher prices in the domestic DCR market ($13-15 cents versus $10-11 cents), along with limited capacity, are likely to constrain India’s contribution to US solar cell imports," Kotak said.
Kotak has retained its FY2025-27 estimates for Premier Energies and Waaree Energies. It maintained its 'Sell' on Premier Energies, with an unchanged fair value of Rs 840. The brokerage suggested 'Reduce' on Waaree Energies, with an unchanged fair value of Rs 2,280.
Meanwhile, the US administration on January 20 passed an executive order called Unleashing American Energy, which indicated a pause on the US IRA incentive. With no further communication from the administration about IRA incentives, uncertainty continues in the US solar market.
"Currently, US solar has 52GWdc of module manufacturing capacity; hence, these higher duties could be partially offset by higher local US production with cell supply from players such as Qcells that face very limited impact from these AD/CVD duties currently," Kotak said.
Waaree Energies, Premier Energies: Kotak Institutional Equities in its latest note said the US antidumping duties (ADs) or countervailing duties (CVDs) on solar imports imports, ranging from 15 per cent to 3,000 per cent, would benefit Indian exporters but only in the medium term.
It noted that preliminary duties were being in place since December 2024, but it was Indonesia and Laos, rather than India, that emerged as the key beneficiaries. Domestic manufacturers have seen only limited positive impact in the initial months, it noted.
To recall, the US recently imposed high duties on solar imports from four Asian countries namely Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. These tariffs are significantly steeper than the preliminary ones implemented in late 2024 and are expected to drastically reduce solar module and cell imports from these countries. The imposition of AD/CVD will have a major impact, as these four countries accounted for nearly 80 per cent of all US solar imports in 2024.
While these duties are likely to cut exports from these four countries to the US, the ability of Indian manufacturers to capture the resulting market opportunity remains key, Kotak Institutional Equities said.
For the first two months of 2025, during which preliminary measures were in force, the US imported 3.4 GW worth of solar modules. Of this, India supplied 446 MW, translating to approximately 13 per cent of the total demand. This marks an increase from the 8 per cent share reached in 2024. That said, most of the supply vacuum was filled by Indonesia and Laos, which were the second and fourth-largest module suppliers during this period.
"Going forward, it will be critical to observe which between India, Laos and Indonesia will capture the vacuum created by the reduction in imports from SEA countries. On the solar cell front, higher prices in the domestic DCR market ($13-15 cents versus $10-11 cents), along with limited capacity, are likely to constrain India’s contribution to US solar cell imports," Kotak said.
Kotak has retained its FY2025-27 estimates for Premier Energies and Waaree Energies. It maintained its 'Sell' on Premier Energies, with an unchanged fair value of Rs 840. The brokerage suggested 'Reduce' on Waaree Energies, with an unchanged fair value of Rs 2,280.
Meanwhile, the US administration on January 20 passed an executive order called Unleashing American Energy, which indicated a pause on the US IRA incentive. With no further communication from the administration about IRA incentives, uncertainty continues in the US solar market.
"Currently, US solar has 52GWdc of module manufacturing capacity; hence, these higher duties could be partially offset by higher local US production with cell supply from players such as Qcells that face very limited impact from these AD/CVD duties currently," Kotak said.