Amid the rising volatility in the broader markets, Indian IT stocks have been facing the wrath of relentless sell-off and muted global sentiments. While the number of IT stocks have tumbled up to 35 per cent from their respective peaks, domestic brokerage firm Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities see some positive cues from US and uncertainties fading away post decent Q3.
Q3FY25 delivered a decent performance at a broad level along with margin efficiency in most of the names and continued robust deal book momentum. Discretionary spending primarily in the BFSI vertical is seeing improvement. Tier-II continues to outperform with mixed performance among Tier-I players, said Nirmal Bang.
"IT spending is expected to grow robustly at 10 per cent in CY25. Commentaries of the Top US banks and Hyperscalers are positive inclining towards increased Tech investments in CY25. Resumption or acceleration of migration and modernization programmes have started in major sub-segments of US banks, a part of Retail and Manufacturing," said the domestic brokerage.
Nirmal Bang believes that robust deal momentum with large deal wins continued across the sector, with TCS, LTIM, Wipro and both Coforge and Persistent securing substantial contracts. GenAI and automation initiatives are scaling up across all major IT firms, helping drive productivity gains and deal conversions.
"Near-term headwinds (delayed decision making, furloughs, cautious spending) are abating, setting the stage for demand recovery. We continue to believe that the sector is poised for a stronger FY26/FY27, with early discretionary spending recovery in BFSI, AI-driven deals, and cloud modernization momentum, backed by improving commentary of US banks and macro stability," it said.
Nirmal Bang has picked LTIMindTree (Target Price: Rs 7,267), Coforge (Target Price: Rs 9,875), Mphasis (Target Price: Rs 3,028) and TCS (Target Price: Rs 4,634 ) as its top buy picks, suggesting an upside potential of 33 per cent, 28 per cent, 17 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively. It has buy ratings on Infosys (Target Price: Rs 2,199), HCL Technologies (Target Price: Rs 1,970), Persistent Systems (Target Price: Rs 6,661) and Birlasoft (Target Price: Rs 585), signaling 15-22 per cent upside potential.
On the other hand, Nirmal Bang has suggested holding three stocks namely Wipro, Tech Mahindra and Zensar Technologies with target prices of Rs 335, Rs 1,851 and Rs 887, respectively. The brokerage sees a mild single digit upside in these three IT counters.