Vedanta Ltd, whose shares are up 78 per cent in 2024 so far, is expected to report a profit in the September quarter against a loss in the year-ago quarter. Sales are seen falling up to 9 per cent year-on-year (YoY) during the same period. Analysts said the management commentary on the demerger status and its guidance on volumes and cost of production (CoP) across verticals will be keenly watched. Also, any update on the parent's debt situation will be crucial. Guidance on future dividend payout will also be keenly watched by investors, they said.
PhillipCapital expects Vedanta's Q2 profit to come in at Rs 1,743.80 crore compared with a loss of Rs 988 crore in the year-ago quarter. It sees revenue falling 9 per cent YoY to Rs 35,466 crore from Rs 38,945 crore YoY. Ebitda is seen rising 25.4 per cent YoY to Rs 8,874 crore, with Ebitda margin likely at 25 per cent against 18.2 per cent YoY.
"Zinc International, Steel and Copper segment volumes to rise QoQ. Aluminium, iron ore and facor to report decline in volumes sequentially. LME Aluminium, Zinc and Lead have declined 5 per cent, 1 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. Crude was 8 per cent down QoQ. Overall margins to decline QoQ on lower realisations," it said.
Nuvama sees Vedanta's adjusted bottom line at Rs 2,460 crore, up 8.9 per cent YoY. It sees sales declining 3.1 per cent YoY to Rs 33,120 crore. Vedanta is expected to report an Ebitda decline of 5 per cent QoQ due to lower base metal prices, particularly aluminium and lead (down 6 per cent QoQ).
"Higher alumina cost to increase aluminium CoP by 3 per cent QoQ. Cost is under control in zinc. We expect Zinc international to expand at ~15 per cent QoQ due to higher volume," Nuvama said.
MOFSL sees profit at Rs 2,600 crore. It sees net sales at Rs 35,465 crore. Ebitda is seen at Rs 9,252 crore.