Domestic brokerage firm ICICI Securities believes that the Nifty50 index is headed for a strong upside of up to 20 per cent in the year 2025. The NSE's benchmark index achieved the milestone of 24,800 for the CY24 but saw some correction due to the volatility in H2CY24.
Nifty to head towards 28,800 being the upper band of the long term rising channel. Past two decades data suggest that buying near 52 weeks EMA offers favourable risk reward with a median return of 23 per cent in next 12 months, said the brokerage firm.
ICICI Securities' traditional and statistical analysis depicts that the stage has been set to embark upon the next up move towards 28,800 levels in the CY25 while the key support threshold is placed at 22,000. Explaining its rationale, the brokerage said that breadth Indicator has a tendency to find support around 30-40 zone in the bull market, resulting in a 20 per cent upside in the next 12 months.
Historically, on five occasions where FIIs have dumped equities worth over Rs 30,000 crore in a single quarter, the average 1 year forward returns have been to the tune of 28 per cent. "Past four decades, the market has seen a double-digit rally in subsequent years to elections with a success rate of 82 per cent," said the brokerage.
On a sectoral front, ICICI Securities expects BFSI, capital goods and IT to outperform, while PSU and metal sectors offer bargain buy opportunities. On a stock specific basis, the brokerage has picked up 8 stocks for the next 12 months, which may deliver 15-25 per cent in 2025.
ICICI Securities has selected United Spirits (Target Price: Rs 1820), Indian Bank (Target Price: Rs 705), Steel Authority of India (Target Price: Rs 153), Timken India (Target Price: Rs 2,750), CESC (Target Price: Rs 235), BEML (Target Price: Rs 5,390), JK Lakshmi Cement (Target Price: Rs 994) and Rallis India (Target Price: Rs 375) on a techno-funda basis.