NASA scientists have pinpointed the likely impact zone for asteroid 2024 YR4, raising concerns about a potential disaster capable of leveling entire cities. Known as the 'risk corridor,' this projected path covers densely populated regions across several countries, including India. If it strikes, the asteroid could unleash energy 500 times more powerful than an atomic bomb.
David Rankin, an engineer at NASA's Catalina Sky Survey Project, identified the risk corridor stretching from northern South America, across the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Vulnerable countries include India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador.
"While the chances of an impact remain slim, we cannot ignore the potential consequences if 2024 YR4 hits Earth," Rankin noted.
Discovered in December 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 has become a major focus for scientists at NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). Initial projections estimated a 1% chance of collision, but recent calculations have doubled those odds to 2.3%. Scientists admit, however, that much remains unknown about the asteroid's size and speed.
The asteroid’s alarming trajectory has earned it a rating of three on the Torino Scale, which measures the risk posed by near-Earth objects. This makes 2024 YR4 one of only two known asteroids in history to reach that level. The other is the notorious ‘God of Chaos’ asteroid, 99942 Apophis.
Though its impact probability is still relatively low, the asteroid has quickly climbed to the top of global risk charts. Rankin and his team continue analyzing its orbit to narrow down potential strike locations while tracking developments closely.