A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, is drawing global attention after updated calculations increased its chance of hitting Earth in 2032. First spotted on December 27, 2024, by Chile’s Rio Hurtado Observatory, the asteroid is currently about twice as far from Earth as the Moon. Estimated to be between 40 and 100 meters in size, it now sits atop NASA’s Sentry Risk List, making it the most closely watched near-Earth object in recent history.
Initial estimates put the impact probability at 1.2% (1 in 83), but fresh observations have raised that to 2.3%. A midweek revision placed the risk at 1.9%, showing how calculations are evolving as new data comes in. With a potential impact date of December 22, 2032, experts are calling this a unique case — no asteroid has shown a collision probability this high since modern tracking began.
NASA on high alert
NASA is continuously refining its tracking of 2024 YR4, using its network of telescopes, including the repurposed WISE Space Telescope. Future enhancements, such as a planned infrared space telescope dedicated to asteroid detection, are expected to improve tracking accuracy. Meanwhile, Chile’s European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope captured images of the asteroid in early January, offering crucial data to model its path.
Challenges in tracking 2024 YR4
Spotting asteroids like 2024 YR4 is difficult since they reflect sunlight only when positioned favorably. Radar provides precise measurements, but when the asteroid makes its next close pass in 2028 — 20 times the Moon’s distance away — it may be out of reach. Infrared observations, including those from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), could be critical in determining its exact size and trajectory.
Global coordination and next steps
The Minor Planet Center in Massachusetts is compiling asteroid reports from observatories worldwide, helping refine predictions. NASA is also advancing its Near-Earth Object Surveyor mission, an infrared space observatory designed to detect potential threats. JWST has been cleared to support planetary defense efforts, adding another tool to Earth’s protective measures.
The next major tracking milestone comes in 2028, when 2024 YR4’s position will be reassessed. Archived data from before its discovery might further refine predictions. For now, astronomers continue to watch closely, underscoring the importance of planetary defense in safeguarding Earth from potential space hazards.