A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has captured global attention as experts warn it could strike Earth in 2032. With a nearly 2% chance of impact, space agencies are racing to gather data on the 40-90-meter-wide asteroid before it fades from sight. First detected on December 27, 2024, at Chile’s Rio Hurtado Observatory, it currently tops NASA’s Sentry Risk List.
Astronomers are using NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to better understand the asteroid’s composition and true size. 2024 YR4 will make a close flyby of Earth on December 22, 2032, but scientists admit they don’t have enough information yet to develop a reliable defense plan.
Robin George Andrews, a volcanologist and author, believes eight years might not be enough time to prepare. “The DART mission was fab, but might not be able to stop 2024 YR4,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter). Referring to NASA’s 2022 DART mission that successfully altered the orbit of a smaller asteroid, Andrews warned a similar approach may not work here.
“If we try to deflect 2024 YR4 with just four years to go — in 2028, when it’s close again — then that deflection would need to be VERY strong,” he said, suggesting a bigger kinetic impactor or even a nuclear device might be needed.
Andrews stressed that breaking the asteroid into fragments would be a risky strategy. “Destroying an incoming asteroid is tricky — you don’t want to turn a cannonball into a shotgun spray.” He also noted that trying to hit it with a DART-like spacecraft would be a gamble. “So much could go wrong,” he said, adding that it might take multiple spacecraft to ensure success.
“Maybe 2024 YR4's odd will rise, and we will successfully deflect it in 2028 using a monster-sized spacecraft. Or maybe we'll break an awkward taboo and instead opt to use a nuclear warhead to try to deflect it, which would provide a bigger punch to the asteroid than DART,” Andrews added.
For now, astronomers are tracking 2024 YR4’s trajectory, hoping to refine the odds of impact. The JWST will play a key role in the coming months, gathering critical data before the asteroid reappears in 2028. Future advances, such as NASA’s Near-Earth Object Surveyor mission, will further bolster planetary defense efforts.
Experts agree that preparation is key, with Andrews warning of one final danger: “We could accidentally deflect it — not enough to avoid Earth — but just enough to make it hit somewhere else.”