Historian and author Niall Ferguson on Tuesday predicted that China is most likely to win the war against the United States (US) over Taiwan -- a self-governing island that Beijing considers as its own territory. He said his advice to policymakers in Washington would be to not go to war with China. Ferguson said China is spending a huge amount of money on defence and that its navy is already the biggest in the world.
"It's (China) building a navy that, in terms of numbers of boats, is already the biggest in the world. It is building a nuclear arsenal, which does not get nearly enough attention. But there is a huge threat to global stability. Right now, if there were a showdown between the US and China over Taiwan, I would not put money on the US winning that showdown," the historian said while speaking with India Today Group's Vice Chairperson & Executive Editor-in-Chief Kalli Purie and Business Today Executive Director Rahul Kanwal at WEF2024 in Davos.
Ferguson, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, said China would be more likely to win the war because its manufacturing capacity is now so much greater than the US. "If you look at the war games that have been done, one of the striking features is - how quickly the US runs out of precision missiles, in a week. Now, if you're going to run out of precision missiles in a week, you're not in great shape to win a war like that," the historian said.
"China's manufacturing capacity is now so much greater than the US, probably two times greater. If it came to a hot war, China would have some real advantages," he said, adding that his strong advice to the American policymakers would be - "Don't do this. Let's not have a showdown over Taiwan. You're not in the kind of position you were in back in the 1990s, the last time there was a Taiwan Strait crisis."
Tensions between the US and China escalated in August 2022 after former US Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan - the first high-profile visit to the territory in recent years that upset Beijing. China has, on multiple occasions, made its intent clear that is prepared to unify Taiwan by force, if required.
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When asked whether Taiwan becoming a part of mainland China is inevitable at some point, the scholar said that he hopes not because Taiwan is a free society and a true democracy. "It shows that Chinese people can run a really exemplary democracy. But you have to ask yourself if its autonomy depends on an American military guarantee, how long can that last when the guarantee ceases to be credible?"
Ferguson said China's investment in its military is a serious cause for disquiet. But this, he added, cannot offset the fact that China's economy is slowing down and President Xi Jinping is facing serious issues in the real estate sector and rising youth unemployment. "The demographics are terrible. There's a scenario in which the population halves between now and the end of the century. It's hard for me to see that China's power is there for the long term. Youth unemployment is past 20%."
"These are serious problems for Xi Jinping that they may make him take strategic risks. Sometimes it is when things are going badly that authoritarian regimes do reckless things," the historian said.
Taiwan earlier this month elected its new president, Lai Ching-te -- who calls the island "an independent sovereign state". Ferguson said that so far nothing bad has happened from China but it may happen in the future.
"It feels like we have probably avoided a crisis this year. But at some point in the next few years, I am afraid there is bound to be a Taiwan crisis. And when that happens, that will be the real test of the US-India relationship. Where will India be in that scenario? My guess is not picking up the phone kind of busy this weekend."