In a series of developments that could significantly shape the upcoming U.S. presidential election, former President Donald Trump is facing a string of challenges, from an ambiguous debate performance to unexpected opposition from pop culture. During the latest presidential debate, Trump appeared to lose momentum toward the end of the event, with no clear winner emerging. However, the buzz shifted dramatically as the candidates left the stage when pop superstar Taylor Swift took to social media to make a powerful political statement.
Swift, in a post that quickly went viral, publicly endorsed Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz for the 2024 elections. In her message, she also debunked circulating fake AI-generated posts that falsely claimed she supported Donald Trump, solidifying her stance against the former president.
On the economic front, recent reports appear to favour Harris, with the "misery index" — a key gauge of public sentiment towards the economy — tilting in her favour. The index, which combines the unemployment rate with inflation, has been a reliable predictor of U.S. election outcomes for decades. It has correctly forecasted 15 of the last 16 presidential races, including every election since 1980, as reported by CNBC.
As of now, the misery index stands at 7.02, a figure that suggests the incumbent party, led by Harris and the Democrats, is still within striking distance of retaining power. For comparison, research firm Strategas has found that an index level below 7.353 in October typically means the incumbent party is likely to win. With a recent dip in the jobless rate to 4.2% in August, the Democrats appear to have a slight advantage heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
This economic measure, which takes into account factors like unemployment, inflation, and the overall public perception of the U.S. economy, suggests that the electorate may not be "miserable" enough to oust the sitting party from office. As the election season heats up, both the economy and high-profile endorsements like Swift’s could play crucial roles in determining the next occupant of the White House.