As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is proving to be one of the closest contests in recent history. According to a new statewide poll conducted by Marist College, both candidates are locked in a virtual tie in three crucial battleground states: North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
The Marist poll, released Thursday, reveals that Trump and Harris are deadlocked at 49% each among likely voters in North Carolina, with 91% of respondents expressing strong confidence in their chosen candidate. This swing state, which holds 16 valuable electoral votes, has a history of leaning Republican in presidential elections, but it's now more competitive due to ongoing political dynamics. North Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial candidate, Mark Robinson, has been mired in controversy over allegations related to questionable material posted online, which has impacted his standing in the polls. His opponent, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein, is polling significantly stronger as a result.
In Georgia and Arizona, the competition remains razor-thin, with Trump narrowly edging out Harris by just 1%—50% to 49%. Both states, which carry 32 electoral votes between them, were pivotal in the 2020 election, where Trump lost to President Joe Biden. However, Georgia, in particular, has shifted into a critical battleground where every vote counts.
The poll, conducted over five days and surveying 4,643 voters across these states, highlights the intense focus both the Trump and Harris campaigns have on securing these regions. Trump won all three states during his 2016 campaign against Hillary Clinton but faced setbacks in 2020, losing Arizona and Georgia to Biden.
Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, noted the significance of North Carolina, saying, "With its 16 electoral votes, North Carolina is a vital battleground for both the Trump and Harris campaigns, serving as a backup plan after the fiercely contested Pennsylvania." Miringoff added that the political landscape in North Carolina remains eerily similar to 2020, with the state’s five regions voting almost identically as they did four years ago.
Key issues driving the race in North Carolina include inflation, the preservation of democracy, immigration, and abortion—topics that are likely to shape voter decisions as the 2024 election nears. Both Trump and Harris will need to galvanize their bases and sway undecided voters in these battlegrounds if they hope to secure a path to victory.