American money manager Michael Burry, who successfully predicted and profited from the 2008 financial crisis, has once again taken a short position against the entire stock market, purchasing put options against S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 via Scion Asset Management, as per recent securities filings.
Once the biggest real estate company of China, Evergrande Group, which first defaulted on its loan in 2021, has filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection on Friday in a US court. Experts are concerned that this could lead to a ‘Lehmann moment’ in China’s real estate market.
Beijing's economic challenges deepened recently as China experienced deflation. Deflation becomes concerning when it becomes widespread and results from companies attempting to sell to consumers who are hesitant or incapable of buying due to financial difficulties. In July, China's consumer sector faced deflation, and factory-gate prices continued to drop.
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Germany officially entered a recession as its GDP declined for two consecutive quarters, with energy prices, influenced by the Ukraine war, severely affecting businesses and households. The war in Ukraine caused a bullish global fuel market, impacting German reliance on Russian gas.
Official data released on Wednesday reveals that the Dutch economy has slipped into a recession, experiencing negative growth for two consecutive quarters. The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) reported a 0.3 per cent contraction in the second quarter, following a 0.4 per cent decline in the first quarter. This technical recession comes after the Netherlands exhibited a robust rebound from the pandemic, outperforming several European counterparts.
As of May 2023, loans for commercial real estate reached a record high of $2.9 trillion, representing a 10% increase over the past year. The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, monitoring this metric since 2004, reported this surge. CBRE, a commercial real estate firm, predicts a recession due to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes to curb inflation, leading to reduced real estate investment and leasing.
Historically, economic growth prevails until interest rates rise to combat inflation and rising living costs. This often leads to a recession and subsequent low interest rates to stimulate growth. Following its July 2023 meeting, the American Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the federal funds rate to 5.25% to 5.5%. This marks the 11th rate increase in this cycle, highest level in more than 20 years
By the end of 2022, US banks held around $620 billion in unrealised losses, stemming from assets that decreased in value but weren't sold, as reported by the FDIC. When interest rates climb, newer bonds offer higher returns, diminishing the appeal and worth of older, lower-yield bonds. This dynamic has led to unrealised losses for most banks.
While recessions often emerge unexpectedly, the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategies have triggered economists' expectations of an imminent substantial economic decline. This impending recession could compound the existing challenges within the global supply chain, amplifying distribution channel issues.
Since 1978, the yield curve has inverted six times (excluding the ongoing inversion), each occurrence preceding a recession. The Federal Reserve's interest rate increases in the past year to curb inflation have led to short-term bond yields linked to these rates. An inverted yield curve, which slopes downward, implies lower returns for longer-held securities, indicating an underlying issue within the economy.