'11,000 years left': Earth’s next ice age is coming and scientists say it’s inevitable
Produced by: Mohsin Shaikh
Ice Age Clock
Earth’s ice ages aren’t random—new research shows they are strictly tied to orbital shifts, with the next one due in 11,000 years.
Cosmic Cycles
Milankovitch cycles—wobbles, tilts, and shifts in Earth’s orbit—determine when glacial and warm periods occur every 20,000 to 400,000 years.
Hidden Pattern
Earth scientist Stephen Barker of Cardiff University found a direct link between precession, obliquity, and ice ages, solving an 80-year-old climate mystery.
Ice Age Trigger
Obliquity (Earth’s axial tilt) alone controls the start of an ice age, while precession and obliquity combined drive deglaciation.
Fossil Clues
Scientists mapped 800,000 years of glaciation using oxygen isotopes from deep-sea fossils, uncovering a long-hidden orbital connection.
Representative pic
Next Ice Age
Earth’s axial tilt is declining toward a minimum, and calculations suggest a new ice age will begin before 11,000 years from now.
Human Influence
The IPCC warns that human greenhouse gas emissions may override natural climate cycles, altering Earth’s long-term trajectory.
Predicting the Future
With this discovery, scientists can now forecast long-term climate trends, helping us prepare for extreme environmental shifts.
Science Breakthrough
Published in Science (2025), this study reshapes climate predictions, proving that Earth’s orbit dictates its climate fate.