Produced by: Manoj Kumar
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With an initial 3.1% impact chance, 2024 YR4 briefly held the highest recorded impact probability for an asteroid of its size.
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Measuring 180 feet wide, this asteroid could release 500 times the energy of the Hiroshima bomb if it hit Earth.
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In just days, the impact probability plummeted from 3.1% to 0.28%, proving how quickly asteroid calculations evolve.
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Despite rising impact odds, YR4 remained at Level 3, meaning scientists always expected it to drop to zero risk.
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February’s full moon limited visibility, but clearer skies later helped NASA refine its calculations and downgrade YR4’s risk.
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YR4 will pass near Earth on December 22, 2032, with a near-zero chance of impact—but astronomers are still tracking it.
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If YR4 were on a collision course, NASA and the International Asteroid Warning Network could attempt to change its orbit.
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If YR4 had struck, it would’ve been a 1-in-1,000-year asteroid impact event—an extremely rare but serious occurrence.
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Better detection methods mean more YR4-like discoveries in the future, ensuring fewer surprises but more public alarms.
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