‘72% chance of hitting Earth in 14 years’: NASA conducts asteroid impact tests to enhance human survival chances

Produced by: Tarun Mishra Designed by: Manoj Kumar

Hypothetical Exercise Reveals High Risk

NASA’s latest hypothetical exercise suggests a newly detected asteroid could have a 72% chance of impacting Earth. The findings were part of the fifth biennial Planetary Defence Interagency Tabletop Exercise, summarized in a report released on June 20.

Collaborative Preparedness Effort

The exercise was organized by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office, FEMA, and the U.S. Department of State Office of Space Affairs. It aimed to evaluate the nation’s readiness and response strategies for potential asteroid or comet threats.

Exploring Potential Scenarios

NASA stated that although no significant asteroid threats are currently known, these exercises provide valuable insights. They help explore risks, response options, and collaboration opportunities for various scenarios, from minor regional damage to potential global catastrophes.

Hypothetical Scenario Details

During the exercise, a scenario was presented involving a never-before-detected asteroid. Initial calculations indicated a 72% chance of it hitting Earth in approximately 14 years.

Uncertain Asteroid Characteristics

The preliminary observations in the exercise were not sufficient to determine the asteroid’s size, composition, and precise long-term trajectory. This uncertainty highlights the need for continued monitoring and preparedness.

Upcoming Close Approaches

According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, two asteroids will pass near Earth on June 25. Asteroid 2024 LO5, measuring 62 feet, will pass at a distance of 1,960,000 kilometers, and Asteroid 2024 KJ, 77 feet in size, will approach at 5,260,000 kilometers.

Additional Approaches in June

On June 27, a 64-foot asteroid named 2019 NJ will pass Earth at 6,610,000 kilometers. Another, much larger asteroid, 415029 (2011 UL21), about 7,200 feet in size, will make its closest approach at 6,640,000 kilometers.

Importance of Ongoing Preparedness

The exercise underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and international cooperation in planetary defence. While the scenario was hypothetical, it highlights the potential threats and the need for readiness to protect Earth from future asteroid impacts.