Produced by: Mohsin Shaikh
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In 2029, Earth will have a hair-raisingly close encounter with asteroid 99942 Apophis, a colossal space rock that could wreak havoc if it were to hit us—but it’ll come shockingly close.
While Earth has frequent brushes with asteroids, most pass by harmlessly. Apophis, however, will come so close that it might experience intense effects from Earth’s gravitational pull.
Experts predict Apophis will endure strong gravitational forces as it nears Earth’s gravitational well, triggering what scientists call an “asteroidquake”—a violent shake-up in the asteroid’s surface.
Unlike a typical earthquake, an “asteroidquake” might shake Apophis with enough force to dislodge debris, sending rocks and dust flying off its surface in a cosmic storm of particles.
Named after the Egyptian god of chaos, Apophis was once feared to have a high chance of hitting Earth. Though unlikely now, its 2029 flyby still promises dramatic cosmic action.
Though smaller than the asteroid that doomed the dinosaurs, Apophis could obliterate millions if it struck, sparking worldwide food shortages. But in 2029, it’s the asteroid, not Earth, that may face the danger.
When Apophis shakes, scientists expect some rubble to detach, forming a pile that may eventually reassemble, while other fragments could break away entirely, drifting off into space.
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Scientists predict Apophis will come within just 5 Earth radii—a mere cosmic breath away. Between 3 and 16 radii is considered close enough for an asteroidquake to take place.
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Long-term, Apophis’s close pass may even shift its rotation. It’s no ordinary rock: it tumbles differently on two axes, and a gravity-induced change could alter its motion indefinitely.