Produced by: Tarun Mishra
About 66 million years ago, a city-sized asteroid struck Earth, creating a 100-mile-wide crater in Mexico and causing the extinction of the nonavian dinosaurs. To prevent future impacts, NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) monitors potential threats through its Sentry system. Here are five asteroids that pose the greatest risk to Earth.
Discovered in 1999, asteroid Bennu currently poses the greatest risk to Earth. Though the chance of impact is only 0.037% (1 in 2,700), it is predicted to pass near Earth on September 24, 2182. If Bennu were to collide with the planet, the energy released would be equivalent to 1.4 billion tons of TNT, causing significant regional damage.
First observed in 1950 and rediscovered after 50 years, asteroid 1950 DA has a 0.0029% (1 in 34,500) chance of impacting Earth on March 16, 2880. This asteroid, measuring about 0.81 miles in diameter, could release energy equivalent to 75 billion tons of TNT, leading to a global catastrophe if it strikes.
Discovered in 2023, asteroid 2023 TL4 quickly became one of the most hazardous near-Earth objects. It has a 0.00055% (1 in 181,000) chance of hitting Earth on October 10, 2119, with an energy output of 7.5 billion tons of TNT, which would cause severe regional destruction.
This asteroid hasn’t been seen since 2007, making its exact orbit unclear. There is a very low probability (1 in 10 million) that 2007 FT3 could hit Earth in 2030, or slightly lower odds for an impact in 2024. An impact would release 2.6 billion tons of TNT, causing considerable damage.
Last observed in 1979, asteroid 1979 XB has a poorly understood trajectory. Scientists estimate a 0.000055% (1 in 1.8 million) chance of an Earth collision on December 14, 2113. The energy released from such an event would be equivalent to 30 billion tons of TNT.
Asteroid Apophis was once considered a high-risk object but was downgraded after a 2021 observation clarified its orbit. Apophis will pass close to Earth in 2029 but will not pose a danger for at least the next 100 years.
Currently, none of these asteroids pose an imminent threat. All are classified as "Level 0" on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, meaning the risk is negligible. NASA’s ongoing efforts continue to monitor these objects and search for other potentially hazardous asteroids.