Produced by: Manoj Kumar
Imagine frozen rivers and bitter winds sweeping across a freezing UK as crops fail. These could be real scenes by 2050, as new studies reveal a chilling prediction: the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key global climate stabilizer.
Known as the ‘great ocean conveyor,’ AMOC moves warm, salty water from the tropics northward, cooling and sinking in the North Atlantic, then returning south. This cycle drives 25% of northern hemisphere heat, keeping Europe’s winters mild and Arctic ice from drifting south.
The effects of a weakened AMOC ripple worldwide. If it falters, climate belts and weather patterns shift. Europe faces freezing winters, the Amazon flips its wet and dry seasons, and rising seas flood US coasts. The stakes? Global climate chaos, driven by AMOC’s decline.
Since 2004, scientists have seen a 10% decrease in AMOC strength, but direct measurements only go back two decades. Using sediment cores and temperature data, researchers found that this weakening is unprecedented in the last 1,600 years, raising serious concerns.
Studies suggest AMOC could reach a tipping point due to ‘salt feedback’—as melting ice and fresh water dilute the Atlantic, it prevents dense water from sinking, weakening AMOC further. This vicious cycle could lead to an irreversible shutdown with just a slight warming.
Climate models project a 30–50% weakening by century’s end if greenhouse gas emissions stay high. But some research suggests a collapse could happen even sooner, as early as mid-century, with studies placing the probability between 42–76%.
Despite these findings, researchers are cautious. Models predicting AMOC collapse differ, and only indirect data is available for earlier periods. The 2021 IPCC report holds that a collapse by 2100 is unlikely, though recent evidence may challenge this.
A weakened AMOC could accelerate sea level rise along the US east coast, worsening flood risks. Higher seas threaten infrastructure and may strain coastal cities’ resilience, adding urgency to address AMOC’s stability and prepare for potential impacts.
Preventing AMOC collapse demands rapid reduction in greenhouse gases. Beyond reducing emissions, nations must enhance climate resilience, protecting food supplies, water resources, and infrastructure to withstand the drastic climate disruptions a collapse could bring.