'Earth is in real danger': City-killer asteroid has a 1 in 32 chance of impact, says NASA
Produced by: Mohsin Shaikh
Impact Odds
NASA now estimates a 1 in 32 chance of impact in 2032, up from earlier projections of 1 in 83—a concerning rise.
City Killer
At 177 feet wide, YR4 wouldn’t end civilization, but its 8-megaton blast could flatten a major city, rivaling nuclear detonations.
Torino Threat
With a Torino Scale rating of 3, YR4 is the only asteroid currently exceeding the 1% impact probability threshold.
Moon Risk
There's a 0.3% chance YR4 could strike the Moon instead, potentially altering its surface and orbital stability.
James Webb Scan
Scientists will use the James Webb Space Telescope in 2025 to refine YR4’s orbit, size, and true impact risk.
Trajectory Unknown
Asteroids like YR4 often see impact probabilities drop as more data refines their paths—but this one keeps increasing.
Risk Corridor
If YR4 hits, NASA projects an impact zone spanning the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.
Defensive Moves?
If the threat persists, NASA may explore deflection strategies—like the DART mission’s kinetic impactor technique.
Waiting Game
Despite its 3.1% chance of impact, there’s still a 96.9% chance it misses entirely—but ongoing monitoring is crucial.