'James Webb's next mission': An alarming rock that could hit Earth in 2032. Here's how it looks
Produced by: Mohsin Shaikh
Asteroid Alert
NASA’s ATLAS telescope captured asteroid YR4, a city-sized threat with a 2.3% chance of impact by 2032. Could more data shift this prediction further?
Rising Odds
YR4’s impact risk jumped from 1.2% to 2.3%. While unlikely, the potential devastation keeps scientists closely monitoring its path.
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City Killer
At 130-300 feet wide, YR4 could release 8 megatons of energy if it strikes. Its risk corridor spans the Pacific to South Asia.
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Corridor Threat
NASA’s risk corridor includes South America, Africa, and South Asia. Could a future observation narrow this target zone?
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Scale Factor
YR4 ranks 3 on the Torino Scale, indicating a significant threat of localized destruction. Most flagged asteroids fall to 0. Will this one?
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Orbital Puzzle
YR4’s path is still uncertain. More data could reduce its threat to 0%, or reveal it’s heading closer to Earth.
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Energy Release
If YR4 impacts, it would unleash energy 500 times stronger than Hiroshima’s bomb. NASA’s planetary defense strategies may be put to the test.
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Deflection Plans
If YR4’s impact odds remain high, scientists may consider deflection strategies. What tools would be used to avert catastrophe?
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Future Focus
James Webb will examine YR4’s size and path in March. After April, observations pause until 2028, leaving a brief window to refine predictions.