‘Once-in-48-years fury’: Rare Arabian Sea Cyclone baffles meteorologists amid growing climate change fears along Indian coasts

Produced by: Tarun Mishra

Rare Cyclone Formation

An unusual cyclone formed in the Arabian Sea after crossing Gujarat's coast, leaving meteorologists baffled. This is the first such event since 1976, challenging the long-standing understanding of cyclone formation in the region.

Historical Context

The last similar event occurred in 1976 when a cyclone originated over Odisha, moved west-northwest, entered the Arabian Sea, and weakened near the Oman coast. This rare occurrence raises questions about changes in the region's meteorological patterns.

Baffling Timing

The timing of this cyclone is perplexing, as the Arabian Sea’s temperature typically remains below 26 degrees Celsius during the monsoon season, making cyclone formation unlikely between July and September.

Cyclogenesis Factors

For a cyclone to form, sea surface temperatures must exceed 26.5 degrees Celsius. The western Arabian Sea is usually unfavourable for cyclone formation due to cooler sea temperatures and dry air from the Arabian Peninsula.

Comparing Cyclone  Activity

Historically, the North Indian Ocean experiences about five tropical cyclones annually, with the Bay of Bengal seeing four times as many cyclones as the Arabian Sea. Most occur in May and November, making this recent event highly unusual.

Climate Change Concerns

Former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Madhavan Rajeevan, expressed surprise at this development, suggesting that global warming might be influencing these unexpected conditions.

Implications for Future Research

This unprecedented event highlights the need for further research into the changing dynamics of cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea, as climate change may be altering established weather patterns and cyclone formation processes. Meteorologists will be closely monitoring this cyclone to understand its implications for future weather predictions and climate models in the region.