Produced by: Mohsin Shaikh
New research warns that rising greenhouse gases could choke low Earth orbit, shrinking the safe space for satellites and fueling a dangerous buildup of space junk.
Greenhouse gas emissions don’t just heat the planet—they shrink the thermosphere, reducing satellite drag and allowing defunct satellites and debris to linger far longer than intended.
As the thermosphere thins, broken satellites and debris won’t fall back to Earth as fast—turning LEO into a junkyard of abandoned tech, threatening collisions and operational chaos.
Atmospheric drag naturally pulls satellites down, but as emissions rise and the thermosphere shrinks, that force weakens—meaning dangerous debris could stay in orbit for centuries.
By 2100, LEO’s capacity for satellites could drop by up to 82% under high emissions scenarios—jeopardizing the very space that powers global communications, navigation, and Earth observation.
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The more satellites we launch without addressing climate and debris, the closer we edge toward Kessler syndrome—a nightmare chain reaction of collisions creating unstoppable clouds of debris.
With mega-constellations like SpaceX’s Starlink adding thousands more satellites, the risks from reduced drag and increased debris multiply, making LEO a potential minefield for future missions.
The link between Earth’s climate crisis and space safety is now clear—what we do on Earth’s surface will directly impact the safety and usability of space for generations.
Without action, LEO could become too hazardous for satellites—threatening not only space exploration but also GPS, weather forecasting, and military operations critical to daily life.
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