Produced by: Mohsin Shaikh
The decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has paused since the early 2010s, contradicting past projections that suggested a steady weakening due to climate change.
While climate models indicate a weakening AMOC since the 1980s, direct observations suggest resilience, prompting scientists to reexamine the role of natural variability.
Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Researchers at NOAA AOML found that a strong North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has counteracted human-induced AMOC weakening, temporarily stabilizing the current.
The AMOC plays a vital role in distributing heat, salinity, and carbon across the ocean, regulating regional climates and shaping global weather patterns.
Sang-Ki Lee, AOML Oceanographer, warns that NAO cycles are unpredictable, meaning AMOC stabilization may reverse, leading to renewed weakening in the coming decades.
Credit: aoml.noaa.gov
The AMOC transports absorbed carbon dioxide into deep waters, a crucial process for long-term carbon sequestration, linking ocean circulation to global climate regulation.
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A University of Miami-led study revealed that while AMOC transport remains stable, its abyssal limb has weakened, increasing deep-sea heat content and contributing to sea level rise.
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Observations show that the Florida Current, a key AMOC component, has remained stable for 40 years, challenging past concerns about its decline.
Credit: NOAA/AOML
Scientists stress the need for sustained AMOC monitoring across multiple latitudes to improve climate models and predict long-term changes with greater accuracy.
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