Produced by: Manoj Kumar
With over 80% of Pakistan’s farmland dependent on Indus basin rivers, reduced water flow threatens vital crops like wheat and rice, risking food shortages and economic instability.
Tarbela and Mangla dams, supplying 30% of Pakistan's electricity, face disruptions due to India's suspension of water releases, potentially leading to power outages and increased reliance on costly coal imports.
Cities like Karachi and Lahore, reliant on canal systems for 60% of their water, may experience acute shortages, especially in drought-prone areas, exacerbating existing deficits.
India's acceleration of hydroelectric projects on western rivers, such as the Kishanganga and Ratle dams, could further limit water availability to Pakistan, challenging the treaty's provisions.
India's plans to expand irrigation in Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, utilizing its treaty rights, may strain Pakistan's water access, impacting agricultural productivity.
Pakistan's potential appeals to international courts face hurdles, as India disputes their jurisdiction under the suspended treaty, complicating legal recourse.
In retaliation, Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian flights and suspended the Simla Agreement, intensifying diplomatic strains and disrupting regional connectivity.
Pakistan may seek support from allies like China and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, but its fragile economy limits its leverage in garnering substantial backing.
India's current infrastructure limits immediate diversion of western rivers; building necessary dams could take a decade, indicating that significant water flow changes are not imminent.