India’s economy remains resilient despite global headwinds, says Upasana Chachra, India Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley. In a recent conversation, she highlights that strong domestic demand—fueled by consumption and capital expenditure—is keeping India well-positioned. With Q4 GDP beating expectations at 7.4% and GST collections showing robust growth, Chachra underscores that while global factors may cause some moderation ahead, India’s fundamentals remain solid.
In conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, Upasana Chachra, Chief India Economist at Morgan Stanley, expresses cautious optimism on India’s inflation trajectory. With food inflation cooling significantly—thanks to strong rainfall last year and a promising start to this year’s monsoon—headline inflation is tracking below 3.5% so far in 2025. Chachra notes that both food and non-food price trends are supportive, with global commodity and oil prices remaining stable. She forecasts inflation to remain decisively below 4% through the year, aligning well with the RBI’s medium-term target, and anticipates further downside surprises in upcoming readings.
India’s economy continues to defy global slowdown trends, clocking a robust 7.4% growth in Q4FY25—making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world. In this conversation, Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, speaks with Upasana Chachra, India Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, to unpack the country’s economic trajectory, inflation dynamics, and policy outlook. This discussion follows the Morgan Stanley India Investment Forum 2025, held in Mumbai on June 3, where global investors converged to decode India’s macro story. Upasana breaks down Morgan Stanley’s strong GDP forecast—driven by resilient domestic demand, strong rural consumption, and record government capex spending. She also explains why inflation is expected to average around 4% over the next two years, aided by lower food prices and a forecast of an above-normal monsoon. With the RBI’s key rate decision scheduled for June 6, she outlines the expected easing cycle and its impact on growth and liquidity.
Join us LIVE for India’s Q4 and full year 2024-25 GDP numbers. Business Today Group Editor Siddharth Zarabi breaks down the details with an expert panel comprising Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte; Indranil Pan, Chief Economist, YES Bank and veteran economist Sunil Sinha. Will India retain its fastest-growing major economy tag? What sectors drove growth, and what does this mean for RBI’s rate outlook and the Modi government's economic roadmap? Don’t miss this sharp, real-time analysis on what the numbers mean for business, policy, markets, and you.
India’s Free Trade Agreement with the UK marks a strategic push to double bilateral trade to $120 billion by 2030. In this conversation, Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, speaks with Ajay Srivastava, Founder of Global Trade Research Initiative, who calls for a reassessment of India’s trade strategy. Drawing from 25 years of FTA experience, Srivastava highlights how imports have outpaced exports in key past deals. He stresses the need for data-driven evaluation to ensure future agreements deliver real gains for the Indian economy.
In this discussion, Ajay Srivastava, Founder of Global Trade Research Initiative, reflects on India’s complex trade relationship with China amid geopolitical tensions. Despite border conflicts, India maintains a transactional trade model with China, relying heavily on Chinese imports like machinery, APIs, and engineering goods. Srivastava highlights that while political ties remain unstable, trade continues due to mutual dependence. He also comments on the impact of the US-China trade war and President Trump’s tariffs, noting renewed investment interest in India as companies seek alternatives to China.
Serum Institute of India CEO Adar Poonawalla sat down with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, to share his vision for vaccine innovation, the future of India’s pharmaceutical industry, and his expanding business interests. He discusses the upcoming rollout of vaccines for dengue and chikungunya, shedding light on both the scientific promise and regulatory hurdles. Poonawalla called for policy reforms and a sustainable pricing framework that balances public health needs with private sector innovation. Venturing beyond healthcare, he reveals ambitious plans in real estate, financial services, and Bollywood—viewing India’s storytelling capabilities as a powerful global soft power tool. He also raises concern over the lack of risk capital for Indian entrepreneurs compared to international peers, urging for a more supportive investment climate. Poonawalla outlines Serum’s intent to remain privately held, even as he prepares a $1 billion capital raise to scale his NBFC business. Emphasizing policy stability and long-term vision, he underscores the role of entrepreneurship in positioning India as a global manufacturing and innovation powerhouse.
Amid ongoing India-US trade negotiations, Ajay Srivastava, Founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, challenges President Donald Trump’s claim that India offered to drop all tariffs to zero. In conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, Srivastava clarifies that while India may lower tariffs on select items, blanket concessions—especially on sensitive sectors like agriculture—are highly unlikely. He criticizes the imbalance in past U.S. trade deals, such as with the UK, where benefits heavily favored the American side. Calling such demands “bullying,” Srivastava emphasizes that India, as a major global economy, must protect its interests and demand fair trade.
Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, speaks with Ajay Srivastava, Founder, Global Trade Research Initiative, in this compelling episode of Easynomics, delving into India's evolving trade playbook amid a volatile global environment. The conversation kicks off with India’s recent trade restrictions on Bangladesh—retaliation against Dhaka’s import curbs—impacting nearly $700 million of exports to India. Srivastava decodes the strategy and what it signals about India's assertive trade posture. A key highlight is the India-UK Free Trade Agreement signed on May 6, 2025. The deal aims to double bilateral trade from $60 billion to $120 billion by 2030, promising to dismantle trade barriers and boost investment. While widely celebrated, Srivastava urges caution. Drawing lessons from India’s past FTAs with ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea, he warns of asymmetric benefits and highlights risks to local manufacturing—especially in the auto sector. As Trump’s aggressive tariff regime fuels de-globalization, India is recalibrating. Srivastava explains why reciprocity must guide future deals, especially with the US, and how India’s approach to China remains tactical and guarded. His core message: FTAs are no substitute for building globally competitive products. India's trade success will hinge not on signatures, but on substance.
India has taken a calibrated yet impactful trade step against Bangladesh, restricting several key imports — including garments, processed food, and plastic products — to designated sea ports, effectively cutting off access through land routes. This move, valued at nearly $770 million or 42% of India’s total imports from Bangladesh, follows what India sees as unprovoked trade curbs and a diplomatic pivot towards China by Dhaka. Ajay Srivastava, Founder of Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), explains that while India hasn’t imposed a blanket ban, it has responded to Bangladesh’s growing restrictions — such as the April 2025 ban on Indian yarn and a new transit fee on Indian cargo — with a deliberate, measured strategy. The May 17 directive from India’s Commerce Ministry is a response not just to trade imbalances but also to geopolitical signals, including recent provocative remarks by Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus during his visit to China. India has also revoked a key transshipment facility granted to Bangladesh in 2020. Srivastava notes that while Bangladesh has now graduated from LDC status and risks losing key tariff advantages, India has so far chosen a restrained path, signaling room for diplomacy but not ruling out tougher measures ahead.
Veteran investor Mark Mobius reaffirmed his long-standing support for gold, emphasizing its enduring value and cultural significance in India. In an exclusive conversation, Mobius recommended that investors keep at least 10% of their portfolio in physical gold. While he acknowledged the difficulty of timing the market, he advocated for a dollar-cost averaging strategy—investing gradually over time to mitigate volatility. “No one knows what the price will be tomorrow or next week,” he said, adding that the consistent appeal of gold makes it a reliable asset through economic cycles. Mobius’ advice reinforces gold's role as a timeless hedge.
In an exclusive conversation with Business Today’s Siddharth Zarabi, veteran investor Mark Mobius shared his outlook on the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and its impact on the global economy. Mobius believes the risk of a U.S. recession has significantly dropped, thanks to domestic policy moves such as boosting manufacturing and lowering pharma prices. He added that with more trade agreements being finalized, global markets may enter a more stable phase. Over the next 3–4 months, Mobius expects increased investor confidence and reduced uncertainty, which could positively shape both the U.S. and global economic landscape.
Veteran investor Mark Mobius believes India still stands to benefit from global trade shifts, especially as companies look to diversify beyond China. However, he cautions that India must act fast to ease entry barriers and reduce bureaucracy for foreign manufacturers. “That’s a big challenge for the Indian government,” Mobius says, referring to factory setup and market access. He also points out that India holds an advantage in the U.S. market due to lower trade barriers compared to China. With smart policy moves, India could significantly boost exports and position itself as a manufacturing hub.
Mark Mobius emphasized the critical importance of a U.S.-India trade agreement in boosting investor confidence. In an exclusive conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor of Business Today, Mobius said the deal would be "very, very significant" not just for tariffs, but also for reducing non-tariff barriers that currently deter companies looking to manufacture in India. He stressed that easing these restrictions would allow firms to import necessary machinery and components, paving the way for increased production. Mobius believes that if implemented, such reforms could significantly enhance India’s investment climate.
In a conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor of Business Today, legendary investor Mark Mobius offered sharp insights into the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict, calling the recent developments “a ceasefire, not peace.” Mobius emphasized that while a temporary agreement has been reached, the fundamental tensions remain unresolved. “China was desperate to reach a deal due to the severe impact on its export manufacturing,” he said, adding that “Trump, too, needed market stability with an eye on stock performance.” Mobius cautioned against assuming that the worst is over, pointing to persistent non-tariff barriers imposed by China as a critical unresolved issue. “It remains to be seen if those will be reduced or eliminated,” he stated, suggesting that the trade war may still have further chapters to unfold. While acknowledging short-term relief in investor sentiment, Mobius made it clear that the global investment community should treat the situation as a pause, not an end.
Mark Mobius revealed that 60% of his fund remains in cash, as they await approval to invest in India. While India is a key focus, Mobius is actively eyeing Southeast Asian markets such as Vietnam, Taiwan, and Korea due to their growth potential. He also sees emerging opportunities in Turkey and Brazil. However, the central theme of his investment strategy remains innovation. Mobius is targeting companies and countries that are leveraging technology to create better, more useful products for consumers, indicating a strong preference for tech-driven, forward-looking sectors.
Tata Power reported a robust performance for Q4FY25 with a 25% YoY rise in consolidated net profit at ₹1,306 crore, compared to ₹1,046 crore last year. Revenue grew 7.9% to ₹17,096 crore, while EBITDA surged 39.2% YoY to ₹3,245.4 crore, reflecting improved operational efficiency. Margins expanded to 19% from 14.7% in Q4FY24. The company also declared a final dividend of ₹2.25 per share, subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming AGM on July 4, 2025. The record date is set for June 20. This marks Tata Power’s 22nd consecutive quarter of PAT growth, underscoring consistent financial strength.Watch Dr. Praveer Sinha, CEO & MD of Tata Power, in conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, on Q4 results and future growth plans.
Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today In an exclusive conversation with veteran investor Mark Mobius, Chairman, Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund, key global and India-specific market insights come to the fore amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty. On the U.S.-China front, Mobius warns that the trade war "isn’t over, it’s just a ceasefire," adding that non-tariff barriers remain a major concern. He sees recession risk in the U.S. falling sharply, supported by increased domestic output and Trump’s pharma push helping contain inflation. Mobius is optimistic about the next 3–4 months globally, expecting markets to stabilize and investor confidence to return. He predicts a stronger dollar ahead, driven by market trust in the U.S. economy. On emerging markets, Mobius places India at the top of his list, saying “India tops list for EM investments,” but warns that India must "cut red tape to gain from trade shift.” The investor also highlights that 60% of his fund remains in cash, awaiting a green signal for India, while Vietnam, Taiwan, and Korea remain top picks. As India negotiates trade deals with the U.S., Mobius believes these agreements could open up greater economic opportunities, especially for sectors like pharma and autos.
Samir Arora of Helios Capital discusses the rebound in the defense sector following a steep correction. Arora highlights a global trend of rising defense spending, driven by countries wanting to reduce their dependence on the U.S. for security, especially after recent geopolitical developments. While acknowledging that India has limited exposure in this sector, he believes the country could still benefit from this broader shift. Arora shares insights on why defense spending is set to increase worldwide and how it could impact markets in India.
In his conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, Samir Arora, Founder Helios Capital, shares a contrarian view on the consumer sector. While consumption is seen as a steady space—even during crises like war or pandemics—Arora points out key challenges: low growth rates, intense competition from unlisted players, and saturated categories. He cautions that despite their safe-haven reputation, large consumer staples may offer limited upside.
In this exclusive interview with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor of Business Today, Samir Arora, Founder Helios Capital, shares why he remains highly bullish on the BFSI (Banking, Financial Services & Insurance) sector. Arora believes foreign investors—who have historically favored Indian financials—are likely to return in large numbers, making BFSI their natural entry point. With improving earnings from top banks and NBFCs, he sees this sector as a strong candidate for fresh capital inflows.
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