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Updated : Feb 28, 2025

India’s Q3 GDP at 6.2%| What It Means for 'BHARAT'

India’s GDP growth reached 6.2% in Q3 FY25, rising from 5.4% in Q2, with real GDP at ₹47.17 lakh crore. The growth was driven by strong rural demand, government capital expenditure, and festive season consumption, though it remained lower than the 8.6% recorded in Q3 FY24. Economists highlight agriculture as the key driver, with Rumki Majumdar, Economist at Deloitte, pointing to its strength in sustaining rural demand, while manufacturing continues to lag. Vivek Kumar, Economist at QuantEco, attributes the slight decline in growth to the base effect, but reaffirms agriculture and consumption as major contributors. With services holding steady and private consumption growing at 6.9%, India’s economic outlook remains strong, and the government now projects GDP growth of 6.5% for FY25, slightly higher than the earlier 6.4% estimate.

Updated : Feb 28, 2025

Will India’s GDP Growth Accelerate Beyond 7% This Year? Madan Sabnavis Weighs In

India's GDP growth rebounded to 6.2% in Q3 FY25, up from 5.4% in the previous quarter, driven by strong rural demand, government capex, and festive season spending. However, growth remains lower than the 8.6% recorded last year. With the full-year GDP estimate revised to 6.5%, experts, including Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, weigh in on the policy outlook. Sabnavis suggests that while a 7%+ growth rate may be challenging, government strategies remain aligned with previous projections. He highlights monsoon impact on agriculture and external trade as key factors to watch.

Updated : Feb 28, 2025

India Q3FY25 GDP Data Explained | Major Highlights & What It Means For You

India's GDP growth accelerated to 6.2% in the third quarter (Q3) of fiscal year 2024-25, ending December 2024. This marks an improvement from the 5.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter (Q2 FY25). Real GDP at constant prices for Q3 FY25 is estimated at Rs 47.17 lakh crore, compared to Rs 44.44 lakh crore in Q3 FY24. Gross Value Added (GVA) also grew by 6.2% year-on-year, while nominal GDP growth, which factors in inflation, stood at 9.9%.The growth rebound is attributed to improved rural demand following a good monsoon, increased government spending on infrastructure, and a revival in consumer-centric sectors during the festive season. However, the 6.2% growth remains lower than the 8.6% recorded in the same quarter last year.For the full fiscal year 2024-25, the government now projects GDP growth at 6.5%, slightly higher than the earlier estimate of 6.4%. Watch Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today in conversation with Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte; Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda and Vivek Kumar, Economist, QuantEco.

Updated : Feb 12, 2025

All You Need To Know About The New Income-Tax Bill: Big Changes, New Vs Old Regime And Penalties

The government is set to introduce the Income-Tax Bill, 2025, a comprehensive revamp of India’s tax laws, replacing the Income-Tax Act, 1961. The new legislation, scheduled to come into effect from April 1, 2026, aims to simplify tax structures, enhance compliance, and curb tax evasion.The Bill introduces 16 schedules and 23 chapters, compared to 14 schedules in the existing law, restructuring sections for improved clarity.It defines taxable income, residency status, and income sources, covering salaries, business profits, capital gains, and foreign earnings. Exemptions for charitable trusts and political parties remain, while deductions for salaries, rent, and employee welfare expenses have been specified. A key feature of the new tax law is section restructuring to make tax provisions more accessible and easier to understand for taxpayers. The Bill also introduces faceless assessment and dispute resolution mechanisms, reducing bureaucratic delays and human intervention. Tax compliance will become more streamlined with mandatory electronic filing, expanded tax audit requirements, and digitised documentation. The General Anti-Avoidance Rule (GAAR) has been reinforced, along with stricter transfer pricing regulations to monitor cross-border transactions and prevent tax avoidance.The Bill is expected to omit references to the old tax regime, officially making the new tax regime the default. However, taxpayers can still opt for the old tax regime if they choose. With a focus on digital compliance, transparency, and efficient tax administration, the Income-Tax Bill, 2025, marks a major shift in India’s taxation framework.Watch Dinesh Kanabar, CEO of Dhruva Advisors LLP; Sandeep Jhunjhunwala , Partner , Nangia Andersen LLP and Ved Jain, Tax Expert in conversation with Business Today Editor, Siddharth Zarabi.

Updated : Feb 07, 2025

Why Did Markets React Negatively To RBI’s Rate Cut? Garima Kapoor Explains | FMCG, PSU Banks Tank

The stock markets reacted negatively to the RBI’s decision to cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points, with the FMCG index witnessing a sharp decline. According to Garima Kapoor, Executive Vice President - Economist at Elara Capital, the reaction stems from two key factors. First, traders were anticipating additional liquidity measures, particularly a CRR cut, which did not materialize. Second, the RBI’s decision to maintain a neutral stance, rather than signaling a clear easing cycle, led to uncertainty regarding future rate cuts. Additionally, consumer stocks have been underperforming after the Union Budget, as the market awaits visible signs of a consumption boost. Kapoor believes this is a short-term reaction, as RBI’s liquidity signals over the last 15 days indicate a commitment to ensuring adequate liquidity in the system.

Updated : Feb 07, 2025

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s 1st Policy: MPC Cuts Repo Rate By 25 bps, Stance Remains 'Neutral'

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday announced that the central bank has slashed the policy repo rate by 25 basis points from 6.5 per cent to 6.25 per cent. The decision was taken on a unanimous basis. The MPC committee decided to maintain a neutral stance. The SDF rate shall be at 6 per cent and the bank rate shall be pegged at 6.5 per cent, he added. The governor said in his address that flexible inflation targeting framework has served India well, while adding the interest of the economy demands financial stability. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Friday forecasted inflation to ease to 4.2 per cent in the upcoming financial year, buoyed by favourable conditions such as good crop production and ease in vegetable prices. For the current financial year ending March, the central bank has projected CPI inflation at 4.8 per cent assuming a normal monsoon. The Sanjay Malhotra-led MPC has projected inflation at 4.5 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year 2025-26, 4 per cent in the second quarter; 3.8 per cent in Q3; and 4.2 per cent in Q4. RBI projected real GDP growth at 6.7% for FY26, For Q1 FY26, the GDP growth forecast was lowered to 6.7% from 6.9%, while the Q2 projection was reduced to 7% from 7.3%. The RBI retained its growth estimate for Q3 and Q4 FY26 at 6.5%. Watch top Economists DK Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL; Sunil Sinha, Economist and Garima Kapoor, Executive Vice President - Economist , Elara Capital in conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today as they discuss the RBI MPC decisions and their impact.

Updated : Feb 07, 2025

RBI Cuts Repo Rate By 25 Bps | What’s Next For The Economy?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, has reduced the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, marking the first rate cut in nearly five years. The decision, taken unanimously by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), comes amid slowing growth and easing inflation. While the stance remains neutral, signaling flexibility for future moves, experts believe this could be the beginning of a rate cut cycle. According to CRISIL Chief Economist DK Joshi, the RBI may lower rates further by 75 to 100 basis points, depending on both domestic and global economic conditions. However, with global uncertainties and inflation risks still in play, the timing and extent of future cuts remain uncertain.

Updated : Jan 20, 2025

Expectations From The Budget 2025 | CII Panel Shares Industry's Top Demands

Join the discussion featuring: Sanjiv Puri, President, CII and Chairman & Managing Director, ITC Limited; Rajiv Memani, President Designate, CII and Chairman and CEO - EY India and Chair – EY Growth Markets Council; and R Mukundan, Vice President, CII and Managing Director & CEO of Tata Chemicals Limited with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today as they analyze key expectations from the Union Budget 2025. The discussion delves into key topics shaping the Budget 2025 wishlist, including private capex, GDP growth, inflation, job creation, government expenditure, Service Sector fiscal deficit, consumption, agriculture, and investments in government infrastructure.

Updated : Jan 16, 2025

Nirmala Sitharaman's Plans For Taxpayers | Income Tax Relief In Budget 2025?

As Union Budget 2025 approaches, hopes are running high among India’s middle class, especially salaried individuals, who are anticipating tax relief to offset rising inflation and revive demand. With private consumption comprising 60% of GDP, its decline has become a concern. High inflation, particularly in food prices, has eroded purchasing power, impacting urban households and demand for essential goods. A tax cut or increased exemption limits could inject much-needed momentum into the economy. India continues to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy, driven by government spending, with corporate profits hitting a 15-year high. Yet, hiring and wages have lagged behind. Reviving consumer demand, especially in urban areas, is critical for sustaining growth, and middle-income households are counting on measures that put more money in their pockets. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s eighth budget, to be presented on February 1, 2025, is expected to address these challenges while laying out the government’s economic vision for Prime Minister Modi’s third term. Join HP Ranina, Advocate, Supreme Court of India, and Dinesh Kanabar, CEO, Dhruva Advisors LLP, in discussion with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today, as they analyze key expectations and potential tax reforms from the Union Budget 2025.

Updated : Jan 08, 2025

Sunil Sinha: Inflation, Low Growth Make Tax Cuts Challenging For Govt

India's economic growth is projected to slow significantly in FY25, with the first advance estimate indicating a real GDP growth rate of 6.4%, down from 8.2% in FY24. This deceleration, the slowest since the pandemic, reflects challenges across key sectors, including a sharp decline in manufacturing growth from 9.9% to 5.3%. While agriculture is a bright spot, expected to grow at 3.8% compared to 1.4% last year, other critical sectors like trade, hotels, and financial services are also set to witness slower growth. On the question of the impact on government tax revenue, particularly amidst demands for income tax relief to ease pressure on the middle class, economist Sunil Sinha highlighted the complexities. He noted that while boosting disposable income through tax reductions could stimulate consumption, it remains challenging given the government's focus on capex-driven investments. Addressing inflation, particularly food inflation, and managing geopolitical risks like a depreciating rupee and rising oil import costs, are critical measures. Sinha emphasized that while structural reforms are needed to enhance consumption demand, substantial income tax relief in the upcoming budget may not be feasible. Instead, targeted efforts to control inflation and support key sectors like agriculture might play a pivotal role in stabilizing the economy and encouraging growth.

Updated : Jan 08, 2025

Budget 2025 Expectations | Indranil Pan On Economic Challenges And Budget Solutions

India's economic growth is projected to slow significantly in FY25, with the first advance estimate indicating a real GDP growth rate of 6.4%, down from 8.2% in FY24. This marks the slowest growth rate since the pandemic, driven by a sharp decline in manufacturing growth from 9.9% to 5.3% and moderation in sectors like trade, hotels, and financial services. Addressing the implications of this slowdown for fiscal and monetary policy, Indranil Pan, Chief Economist at YES Bank, emphasized the need for targeted government interventions. He suggested that reviving growth requires a strong focus on supply-side measures, including fine-tuning employment and skilling schemes to generate jobs and enhance income distribution. Pan highlighted the urgent need for increased investment in agricultural R&D to address climate change challenges and stabilize food prices. He also underscored the importance of reducing costs related to electricity and logistics to boost manufacturing, pointing out that despite lower corporate tax rates, India’s manufacturing sector has yet to achieve significant growth. With these considerations, the forthcoming budget will need to balance short-term economic stabilization with long-term growth initiatives, particularly in employment generation, agriculture, and infrastructure.

Updated : Jan 07, 2025

Crucial First Advance Estimate Of GDP For FY25 Ahead Of Budget FY26

India's GDP growth is estimated to moderate to a four-year low of 6.4% in the current financial year ending March, according to the first advance estimate released by the statistics ministry. The Indian economy has grown by at least 7% in each of the last three financial years after shrinking 5.8% in 2020-21. In FY24, GDP growth beat all forecasts to come in at 8.2%. The first advance estimate of 6.4% is even lower than the Reserve Bank of India's projection of 6.6% GDP growth for FY25 and the Finance Ministry's estimate of 6.5%. Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today discusses the implications and the meaning of this dip in economic growth with two top economists - Indranil Pan, Chief Economist of YES Bank and Sunil Sinha, Economist.

Updated : Nov 22, 2024

Tatas Don’t Think Small: Dr. Mathew On Air India Transformation

Ratan Tata's decision to acquire Air India stems from a blend of nostalgia, ambition, and determination. Dr. Thomas Mathew, author of "Ratan Tata: A Life," highlights that the decision was partly emotive, rooted in the legacy of J.R.D. Tata, who regarded Air India as a jewel in India’s aviation crown. J.R.D. Tata's removal as Air India's chairman during Morarji Desai's era left a lasting impact, and bringing the "Maharaja" back to the Tata fold was a way to restore its legacy.Beyond sentiment, Tata Sons chairman N. Chandrasekaran expressed confidence in the ability to transform Air India into a global aviation leader. With their penchant for executing grand-scale projects, the Tatas aim to rejuvenate the airline’s fleet and service quality, symbolizing India’s aviation excellence. Dr. Mathew emphasizes, "This is not the same Maharaja; it’s a wounded one. But with time, they can turn it into an epitome of India's airline success."

Updated : Nov 18, 2024

Lessons For Future Generations From Ratan Tata's Life

Ratan Tata: A Life by Dr Thomas Mathew offers readers an in-depth look at one of India’s most iconic industrialists, Ratan Tata. This biography takes a comprehensive journey from Tata's lonely childhood to his rise as the chairman of Tata Sons in 1991 and his pivotal role as head of Tata Trusts, India’s largest philanthropic institution. Drawing on extensive interviews with Tata, his family, friends, and business associates, Mathew reveals previously unknown anecdotes and personal insights, capturing the life, challenges, and achievements of a man who shaped modern Indian industry. Thomas Mathew's three-decade friendship with Tata lends this biography an authentic perspective, revealing both the public and private facets of Ratan Tata’s extraordinary life. Thomas Mathew, a retired bureaucrat, served in key roles during his distinguished three-decade tenure in the Indian Administrative Service. A law graduate from Delhi University with a doctorate in International Relations from Jawaharlal Nehru University, Mathew was instrumental in introducing transformative policies in the defence and finance ministries. His notable contributions include enabling unrestricted foreign direct investment in India’s defence sector and facilitating direct participation of foreign investors in the Indian equity market. Mathew’s association with Ratan Tata began about 30 years ago, rooted in shared interests, and their enduring connection provided unique insights into Tata’s life. His deep understanding of global policies and the corporate world uniquely positioned him to author this comprehensive biography. Watch Business Today Editor Siddharth Zarabi in conversation with Thomas Mathew, the author of 'Ratan Tata: A Life' and Former bureaucrat credited with pioneering changes in defence and Finance and a regular contributor to major newspapers on these and security issues. Watch Business Today Editor Siddharth Zarabi in conversation with Thomas Mathew, the author of Ratan Tata: A Life.

Updated : Nov 18, 2024

BT Magazine Exclusive Interview With Uday Shankar, Vice Chairperson Of Reliance-Disney Media JV

Reliance Industries Limited, Viacom 18 Media Private Limited and The Walt Disney Company announced that following the approval by the NCLT Mumbai, Competition Commission of India and other regulatory authorities, the merger of the media and JioCinema businesses of Viacom18 into Star India Private Limited has become effective (the “JV”). In addition, RIL has invested ₹11,500 crore into the JV for its growth. The JV has allotted shares to Viacom18 and RIL as consideration for the assets and cash, respectively. The transaction values the JV at ₹ 70,352 crore on a post-money basis, excluding synergies. At the closing of the transactions noted above, the JV is controlled by RIL and owned 16.34% by RIL, 46.82% by Viacom18 and 36.84% by Disney. Nita Ambani will be the Chairperson of the JV, with Uday Shankar as Vice Chairperson of the JV. Watch BT Magazine Exclusive Interview with Uday Shankar, Vice Chairperson of the Reliance-Disney Media JV, in conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor of Business Today, and Krishna Gopalan, Executive Editor of Business Today.

Updated : Oct 17, 2024

The Five Key Tipping Points For The Indian Economy

A recent UBS report raises crucial questions about India’s economic trajectory as it aims to become the world’s third-largest economy. With a population exceeding 1.4 billion, the nation faces pressing issues such as inflation, consumer sentiment, job creation, and the implications of an election-heavy calendar. The report highlights five key areas of concern. First, India's K-shaped consumption pattern, which suggests a potential narrowing as affluent consumers show signs of fatigue while low-income segments may benefit from increased rural demand and public spending. Second, whether India’s current ‘goldilocks’ growth phase—characterized by strong GDP growth—can be sustained amidst external risks like global slowdowns and market pressures from China. Third, the shifting composition of household savings, noting a transition from bank deposits to alternative asset classes, impacting bank deposit growth. the report also covers the possibility of more significant rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in light of global monetary easing, and what this could mean for capital expenditure recovery. and Report covers concerns regarding fiscal profligacy in various Indian states, especially in the context of upcoming elections, which could impact overall economy. Watch Tanvee Gupta Jain, Chief India Economist, UBS Securities India in conversation with with Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi as we unpack these pivotal questions and their implications for India’s future economic landscape.

Updated : Oct 09, 2024

Deloitte’s Rumki Majumdar: RBI May Cut Rates In December If Inflation Declines

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, with a 5:1 majority, and shifted its monetary policy stance to 'neutral' from 'withdrawal of accommodation.' This has sparked speculation about a potential rate cut in the December policy meeting. Rumki Majumdar, Economist at Deloitte India, believes a rate cut in December is possible but notes that the next couple of months will be critical. She highlights that while overall CPI inflation has dipped below 4%, rural inflation remains high at 4.2%, driven by persistently high food prices. Majumdar points out that rural demand is beginning to show signs of recovery, but the RBI will closely monitor food and commodity price movements in the coming months. Additionally, she emphasizes the importance of global factors, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions, which could influence India's inflation and import costs. All these factors will play a crucial role in shaping the RBI's decision in December.

Updated : Oct 09, 2024

RBI Says Subsidies Dragged Down Q1 GDP Growth, Madan Sabnavis Explains What’s Next

At the post-monetary policy press briefing, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das addressed concerns regarding India’s GDP growth, stating that the growth rate of 6.7% in Q1 FY25 was constrained by central and state government subsidies. He mentioned that GDP growth would have exceeded 7% if the effect of subsidies was removed from the calculation. Das also noted that lower government expenditure in the first quarter impacted growth but expressed confidence that both central and state spending will align with the budget targets for the year. Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, offered insights on the governor's remarks. He explained that while Q1 growth was slightly lower at 6.7%, the GDP growth projection for the full year remains at 7.2%. Sabnavis highlighted that consumer demand and investment have both revived, contributing positively to economic momentum. He emphasized that the gap between GDP and GVA (Gross Value Added) was influenced by the heavy subsidy outlays in the first quarter, possibly due to election-related front-loading. However, as tax collections remain strong and the need for subsidies lessens, GDP growth is expected to realign with the 7.2% target in the upcoming quarters. Sabnavis also reassured that the RBI can continue focusing on inflation without concern about hindering growth, as the economy is on the right trajectory.

Updated : Oct 09, 2024

Has The RBI Set The Stage For A Rate Cut In The Future?

Is the RBI’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged a prudent and well-considered move? Headline inflation has moderated, but is it likely to rise again due to geopolitical tensions and increasing commodity prices? Domestic growth remains strong, with urban demand holding steady and rural demand showing signs of improvement. So is it wise of the MPC members to observe the situation for a few more months before considering a strategic interest rate cut? What does the RBI shifting its monetary policy stance to 'Neutral', mean for liquidity conditions and growth? And has the stage been set for a potential rate cut in the future?

Updated : Sep 10, 2024

Contrarian Report By Nomura Says Rate Cuts To Begin In October, 100 BPS Cuts By Mid-2025

An exclusive conversation with Sonal Varma, Managing Director and Chief Economist (India and Asia ex-Japan), Nomura on why the global consultant believes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could resort to repo rate cuts in its October monetary policy review. While the consensus among analysts is that rate cuts will happen only from December after food inflation cools, Nomura in its recent report, said that RBI could make a surprise rate cut in October and trim repo rates by up to 100 basis points to 5.50 per cent by mid FY25. RBI had last tweaked repo rates in February 2023 increasing the benchmark rate to 6.50 per cent. The rates have been held since then with the central bank intent on keeping retail inflation at 4 per cent with a ‘tolerance band’ of 200 basis points on either side. In a chat with Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi, the Nomura MD and Chief Economist says while food price inflation is cooling and core inflation remains benign, growth is going to soften going ahead. According to Nomura, India's GDP growth is expected to moderate to 6.7 per cent this financial year from 8.2 per cent last year, with downside risks rising in 2025-26. It is in this backdrop that Sonal Varma believes an inflection in India's monetary policy cycle is around the corner. She expects the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 bps each in October, December, February 2025 and April 2025.

Updated : Sep 09, 2024

Exclusive: Shyam Srinivasan, MD & CEO, Federal Bank On A 14-Year Success Legacy

Shyam Srinivasan, who has served as the Managing Director and CEO of Federal Bank since September 23, 2010, is set to be succeeded by KVS Manian, the former Joint Managing Director at Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. Srinivasan's tenure, spanning 14 years, concludes on September 22, 2024. Under his leadership, Federal Bank has achieved significant milestones and growth. Recently, Federal Bank reported its financial results for the quarter ending June 30, 2024, marking a record high in quarterly profit, which increased by 18.25% to ₹1,010 crore. Total business for the bank rose by 20% to ₹4,86,871 crore, driven by strong gains in both deposits and advances. The operating profit reached an unprecedented ₹1,500.91 crore. Key performance metrics include an improved Return on Assets (ROA) of 1.27% and a Return on Equity (ROE) of 13.64%. Asset quality remained strong with Gross NPA at 2.11% and Net NPA at 0.60%. Total deposits grew by 19.58%, and net advances increased by 20.34%. Net Interest Income (NII) surged by 19.46% to ₹2,291.98 crore, showcasing Federal Bank's robust financial health and strategic growth. Watch Shyam Srinivasan, MD & CEO of Federal Bank, in conversation with Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi.

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