Reserve Bank of IndiaThe Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its October review meeting unanimously decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
"The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 4th, 5th and 6th October 2023. After a detailed assessment of the evolving macroeconomic and financial developments and the outlook, it decided unanimously to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday.
In its past three meetings held in April, June and August, RBI held the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
The central bank also retained the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.5 per cent with risks evenly balanced.
"Real GDP growth for 2023-24 is projected at 6.5 per cent with Q2 at 6.5 per cent; Q3 at 6.0 per cent; and Q4 at 5.7 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced. Real GDP growth for Q1, 2024-25 is projected at 6.6 per cent," Das said.
RBI also maintained retail inflation at 5.4 pc for 2023-24.
"While near-term inflation is expected to soften on the back of vegetable price correction, especially in tomatoes, and the reduction in LPG prices, the future trajectory will be conditioned by a number of factors. For kharif crops, the area sown under pulses is below the level a year ago. Kharif onion production needs to be watched closely. Demand supply mismatches in spices are likely to keep these prices at elevated levels," Das said.
"The inflation trajectory will also be shaped by El Nino conditions and global food and energy prices. Together with global financial market volatility, these factors pose risks to the outlook. Taking into account these factors, CPI inflation is projected at 5.4 per cent for 2023-24, with Q2 at 6.4 per cent, Q3 at 5.6 per cent and Q4 at 5.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced. CPI inflation for Q1:2024-25 is projected at 5.2 per cent," he added.
Also Read: RBI MPC meet in October 2023: RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.50% fourth time in a row
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, "...We have announced the withdrawal of Rs 2,000 notes. So far, we have got back about 3.43 lakh crore and about 12,000 crore are left. 87 per cent of it has come as bank deposits..."
Rs 2,000 can be deposited in the issue offices of RBI after tomorrow. The bulk of Rs 2,000 notes are back, as per RBI Governor.
Inclusion of the African Union in G20 is in line with India's objective of placing the voice of the global south on the international table, said RBI Governor.
"Liquidity in surplus, we will be very watchful about its active management," said Shaktikanta Das.
"The balance sheet of banks, NBFCs are better than before. Our objective is to be mindful about retail credit in the future," said Shaktikanta Das.
RBI Governor at the RBI MPC meeting press conference said that, "Warning about OMO sales has nothing to do with India’s global bond index inclusion. It is to do with domestic situation. At the moment, we do not propose to have a calendar for OMO sales."
Earlier in the day, Governor Das said the central bank will consider open market operations (OMO) sales to manage liquidity. "We may have to consider OMO sales to manage liquidity on consistent with stance of monetary policy," Das said.
"Liquidity is not in deficit. It went into deficit recently due to scheduled GST, and advance tax payments. But overall, liquidity is surplus," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said.
"Our inflation target is 4 per cent and not 2 to 6 per cent. We remain vigilant of the evolving inflation dynamics," said RBI governor Shaktikanta Das.
"Status quo on the policy rates as well as stance was very much in line with street expectations. The Central bank kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. Volatile crude and below par Kharif sowing has kept everyone guessing about the inflation trajectory. However green shoots should be visible with softening core inflation and favourable seasonal factors. This explains somewhat the reason for little change in Inflation estimates. GDP estimates for FY24 too were retained at 6.5% as PMI remains robust and Credit growth continues to be strong. With no surprises at play, this policy should be a non-event for the markets. Rather the way forward for Equities would be guided by the upcoming Quarterly results season," Kaushik Dani, fund manager – PMS, Abans Investment Managers, said.
Soon after the RBI MPC meeting announcements, Congress leader Jairam Ramesh took to X and wrote, "The RBI has maintained the Repo Rate — the interest rate it charges for borrowings by commercial banks from it — at 6.5%. This simply means that concerns on inflation continue to be serious. For 47 months, the Consumer Price Index(CPI) has remained well over the RBI's own medium-term target of 4%. In August 2023, the CPI stood at 6.83%."
"This of course masks the true hardships being faced by crores upon crores of families from unabated increase in prices of essential commodities," he added.
This comes after the central bank monetary policy committee (MPC) in its October meeting decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent, thus maintaining the status quo for the fourth straight occasion.
"On expected lines, the RBI has decided to keep the repo rate and the stance unchanged, with a cautious approach towards inflation which is still showing uncertainties. The global food and energy volatility in prices and monsoon-impacted kharif sowing is expected to continue built-up of pressure on inflation and as a result, RBI has decided to keep a wait-and-watch policy, before taking a further view on repo rate change. The fact that the projected GDP growth rate and inflation rates have been kept unchanged indicates the resolve of RBI to be able to tame inflation with suitable action while supporting growth," Jyoti Prakash Gadia, Managing Director at Resurgent India, said.
"The stock market is expected to show positive signs with the likelihood of fresh capital investments both privately and through government expenditure.
In the matter of Liquidity, RBI has rightly hinted at taking a careful approach, with an intent to maintain balance through Open Market Operations in government securities, which is a tool available in the hands of RBI to immediately inject or suck out liquidity. The emphasis on maintaining stability in the Financial markets with efficient risk management by banks and NBFCs is a step in the right direction to ensure Long-term sustainable growth. Overall, a pragmatic policy announcement for maintaining stability and aiming at sustainable growth," Gadia added.
"Elevated food inflation and global uncertainties notwithstanding, the Reserve Bank of India expectedly kept the policy rates paused in its monetary policy review for October. With this the repo rate, remains paused at 6.50 since February 2023.The RBI’s view is that developed economies are nearing a peaking of rates. This is welcome, although inflation is expected to remain elevated for longer than anticipated. We see cautious optimism in the governor’s speech. It suggests that things are difficult right now. But interest rates and inflation are on the right trajectory with limited upside risks, and the central bank will continue to manage growth expectations using all the tools of monetary policy," Adhil Shetty, CEO, Bankbazaar.com, said.
Shetty further added that as far as household finances are concerned, the interpretation goes as follows:
Fixed Deposits: While interest rates remain elevated, 2023 remains a good time for depositors—especially senior citizens—to lock into elevated rates for the long-term. Several banks now offer 7-8% on long-term tenors. Senior and super-senior citizens will find 50-75 bps more to lock in to.
Home Loans: Homebuyers will welcome the pause on the repo rate though they would also hope for a rate cut soon. When the central bank keeps the repo rate steady, it results in a sustained period of unchanged or relatively stable rates. This consistency aids prospective homebuyers in planning their finances and commitments. Those looking to purchase properties or refinance existing home loans can find this decision favourable.
Securities Markets: In the governor’s speech today, we have seen cautious optimism for the future. The food inflation spike in July has been followed by a softening of prices. The global economy is also looking at the United States to see where they take interest rates. The consensus is that things are difficult now, but 2024 could be much better as and when interest rates start to fall. This would have a positive impact on both stock markets and bond markets.
"The RBI's decision to maintain the status quo in its policy has been received positively by the market, despite growing concerns about rising inflation on a global scale. Nevertheless, the impact of this decision is expected to be limited, as the market's attention is anticipated to shift towards global market dynamics, notably the dollar index and US bond yields. Technically speaking, Nifty has managed to surpass the 50-day moving average (DMA), suggesting potential for a further recovery towards the 20-DMA level of 19,800. However, a significant bullish momentum is projected to materialize only upon breaching the 19,800 mark," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Indian forex reserves stood at $586.9 bn as on September 29, as per RBI.
Headline inflation moderated to 4.6 per cent in the first quarter of the current financial year, as compared to 7.3 per cent in the first quarter of last year
Q2, FY24- 6.4%
Q3, FY24- 5.6%
Q4, FY24- 5.2%
Q1, FY25- 5.2%
"Taking all factors into consideration, Real GDP Growth for the current financial year 2023-24 is projected at 6.5%. The risks are evenly balanced. Real GDP Growth for the first quarter of next financial year 2024-25 is projected at 6.6%," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said.
Q2, FY24- 6.5%
Q3, FY24- 6.0%
Q4, FY24- 5.7%
Q1, FY25- 6.6%
RBI Monetary Policy Committee unanimously decides to keep repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent, RBI Guv Shaktikanta Das said on Friday.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said India is poised to become the new growth engine of the world.
The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has revised its economic growth projection for India in 2023, increasing it from the previously forecasted 6 per cent in April to 6.6 per cent. However, it anticipates a slight slowdown in India's growth to 6.2 per cent in 2024.
In its report released on Wednesday, UNCTAD also predicts a deceleration in global economic growth, expecting it to reach 2.4 per cent in 2023 but projecting a marginal improvement to 2.5 per cent in 2024.
