India@100: Key trends powering the path to a developed nation status by 2047

Around this time last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke exclusively to Business Today and outlined his vision for India in the backdrop of India’s G20 presidency. Rooted in that vision was the idea that it was India’s moment to seize, and a number of factors were coming together to help India claim pride of place on the world stage. A year later, as India moves confidently towards 2047—the hundredth year of Independence—it is clear that the march towards India@100 will be powered by some distinctly visible trends. Let’s consider the facts. With a GDP growth rate of 8.2% in FY24, beating all estimates, India is the fastest-growing major economy in the world. And only recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upped India’s growth forecast to 7% from the earlier estimate of 6.8% for FY25. The government also predicts India will be the world’s third-largest economy with a GDP of $5 trillion in 2027. But even beyond the next few years, a set of factors can propel India to the status of a developed country—and that’s the aim of the government that is putting in place a strategy for a Viksit Bharat, or developed nation status, by 2047.

A recent NITI Aayog approach paper spells out the Vision for Viksit Bharat@2047. The aim is to become a $30-trillion economy by 2047, with an annual per capita income of $18,000. That means the GDP would have to grow nine times from today’s $3.36 trillion, and per capita income needs to go up eight times from the current $2,392 per annum. While these look like lofty ambitions, there are enough tailwinds for India to ride on and fulfil this dream. But it needs to overcome challenges along the way. In this special issue on India@100, we take a close look at some of the key trends that can power India in its journey to Viksit Bharat status, and what needs to be done to achieve that.

Among the key factors that India has to its advantage are a young population that can give rise to entrepreneurial energies and innovation; a robust digital public infrastructure on which several innovations and delivery of public benefits can ride; a strong financial system; and a booming domestic market. With an aspirational young population, consumerism will be one of the key factors that will drive the domestic economy. The creation of physical infrastructure is also expected to spur demand and India’s commitment to energy transition and its net-zero game plan will see rapid changes in the energy mix. However, among the challenges is growing inequality, and the possibility of falling into what the World Bank calls the “middle-income trap”. Escaping that trap would require sustained growth of 7-10% for a 20-30-year period, and India must work carefully to avoid it. Apart from examining the key trends that could take us to developed nation status, we also bring you a stellar line-up of the finest minds who share their thoughts on how India can make this ambition a reality. As the NITI Aayog paper says, “India is at a turning point in its history.” It’s time to seize the moment.